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KTPA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
94%
ICON
80%
WN2
80%
AIFS
75%
HRES
74%
Consensus
83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 83.9¢Risks 41.95u
VS
HRESNO 16.1¢Risks 8.05u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +8.05u · HRES −8.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 66.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:03+00:00AIFS Single: 66.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00AIFS Single: 66.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00AIFS Single: 66.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00AIFS Single: 63.6% · 2026-10-19T04:30:35+00:00AIFS Single: 63.6% · 2026-10-19T05:17:01+00:00AIFS Single: 63.6% · 2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00AIFS Single: 63.6% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00AIFS Single: 76.5% · 2026-10-19T07:32:55+00:00AIFS Single: 76.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00AIFS Single: 76.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00AIFS Single: 76.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00AIFS Single: 76.5% · 2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00AIFS Single: 76.5% · 2026-10-19T11:20:45+00:00AIFS Single: 76.5% · 2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00AIFS Single: 76.5% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00AIFS Single: 75.3% · 2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00AIFS Single: 75.3% · 2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.9% · 2026-10-18T08:01:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.9% · 2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.9% · 2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.9% · 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.5% · 2026-10-19T04:30:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.5% · 2026-10-19T05:17:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.5% · 2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.5% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.5% · 2026-10-19T07:32:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.5% · 2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.6% · 2026-10-19T11:20:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.6% · 2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.6% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.6% · 2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.5% · 2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.3% · 2026-10-19T04:30:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.1% · 2026-10-19T05:17:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.1% · 2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.1% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.1% · 2026-10-19T07:32:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.8% · 2026-10-19T11:20:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.8% · 2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.8% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.8% · 2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.8% · 2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00IFS HRES: 56.2% · 2026-10-18T08:01:03+00:00IFS HRES: 56.2% · 2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00IFS HRES: 56.2% · 2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00IFS HRES: 56.2% · 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00IFS HRES: 82.4% · 2026-10-19T04:30:35+00:00IFS HRES: 82.4% · 2026-10-19T05:17:01+00:00IFS HRES: 82.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00IFS HRES: 82.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00IFS HRES: 74.3% · 2026-10-19T07:32:55+00:00IFS HRES: 74.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS HRES: 74.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00IFS HRES: 74.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS HRES: 74.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00IFS HRES: 74.3% · 2026-10-19T11:20:45+00:00IFS HRES: 74.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00IFS HRES: 74.3% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00IFS HRES: 74.3% · 2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00IFS HRES: 74.3% · 2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00ICON: 37.0% · 2026-10-18T08:01:03+00:00ICON: 37.0% · 2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00ICON: 37.0% · 2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00ICON: 37.0% · 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00ICON: 67.0% · 2026-10-19T04:30:35+00:00ICON: 67.0% · 2026-10-19T05:17:01+00:00ICON: 67.0% · 2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00ICON: 67.0% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00ICON: 80.7% · 2026-10-19T07:32:55+00:00ICON: 80.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00ICON: 80.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00ICON: 80.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00ICON: 80.7% · 2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00ICON: 80.7% · 2026-10-19T11:20:45+00:00ICON: 80.7% · 2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00ICON: 80.7% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00ICON: 80.7% · 2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00ICON: 80.4% · 2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:0010-18 08:0110-19 08:1910-19 14:27
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T08:01:03+00:0066.8%95.9%77.8%56.2%37.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:0066.8%95.9%77.8%56.2%37.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:0066.8%95.9%77.8%56.2%37.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:0066.8%95.9%77.8%56.2%37.0%
2026-10-19T04:30:35+00:0063.6%95.5%75.3%82.4%67.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:01+00:0063.6%95.5%70.1%82.4%67.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:0063.6%95.5%70.1%82.4%67.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:0063.6%95.5%70.1%82.4%67.0%
2026-10-19T07:32:55+00:0076.5%95.5%70.1%74.3%80.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:0076.5%95.5%70.1%74.3%80.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:0076.5%95.5%70.1%74.3%80.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:0076.5%95.5%70.1%74.3%80.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:0076.5%95.5%70.1%74.3%80.7%
2026-10-19T11:20:45+00:0076.5%93.6%79.8%74.3%80.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:0076.5%93.6%79.8%74.3%80.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:0076.5%93.6%79.8%74.3%80.7%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:0075.3%93.6%79.8%74.3%80.7%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:0075.3%93.5%79.8%74.3%80.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble94%83.2°F2.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON80%85.6°F7.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 280%83.4°F4.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single75%83.2°F5.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS HRES74%83.8°F6.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend67%81.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
NWS forecast53%80.0°F5.9°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261025-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 80°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗