KTPA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

80%

80%

75%

74%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 83.9¢Risks 41.95u

HRESNO 16.1¢Risks 8.05u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +8.05u · HRES −8.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	58.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	63.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	57.2%	—	26.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	39.9%	—	—	—	—	63.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	56.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	55.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	32.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	71.3%	—	—	57.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	29.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	—	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	42.4%	—	55.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	76.4%	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	64.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	8.8%	55.4%	—	—	48.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	64.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	48.6%	77.6%	26.3%	—	60.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	77.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	49.3%	67.7%	60.1%	64.3%	—	59.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	48.5%	—	72.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	54.6%	65.6%	73.6%	73.6%	—	63.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	75.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	60.3%	74.5%	68.4%	68.4%	64.8%	65.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	65.1%	—	—	66.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	94%	83.2°F	2.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	80%	85.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	83.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	75%	83.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	83.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	81.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	80.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261025-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 80°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗