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KTPA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
89%
WN2
76%
AIFS
67%
HRES
59%
ICON
40%
Consensus
76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 64.5¢Risks 64.55u
VS
ICONNO 35.5¢Risks 35.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +35.45u · ICON −35.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 67.4% · 2026-10-19T07:32:55+00:00AIFS Single: 67.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00AIFS Single: 67.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00AIFS Single: 67.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00AIFS Single: 67.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.3% · 2026-10-19T07:32:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.6% · 2026-10-19T07:32:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00IFS HRES: 58.6% · 2026-10-19T07:32:55+00:00IFS HRES: 58.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS HRES: 58.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00IFS HRES: 58.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS HRES: 58.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00ICON: 39.8% · 2026-10-19T07:32:55+00:00ICON: 39.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00ICON: 39.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00ICON: 39.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00ICON: 39.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:0010-19 07:3210-19 09:0410-19 10:35
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:32:55+00:0067.4%89.3%75.6%58.6%39.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:0067.4%89.3%75.6%58.6%39.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:0067.4%89.3%75.6%58.6%39.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:0067.4%89.3%75.6%58.6%39.8%
2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:0067.4%89.3%75.6%58.6%39.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble89%82.6°F2.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 276%83.3°F5.5°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
AIFS Single67%82.1°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES59%80.9°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend55%80.0°F4.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON40%76.9°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261026-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗