KTPA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

76%

67%

59%

40%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 64.5¢Risks 64.55u

ICONNO 35.5¢Risks 35.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +35.45u · ICON −35.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	—	—	—	—	57.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	71.8%	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	60.0%	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	77.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	23.1%	—	—	60.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	75.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	11.1%	81.5%	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	44.4%	69.5%	72.5%	24.1%	—	61.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	66.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	60.8%	81.1%	78.0%	80.6%	14.4%	67.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	84.0%	—	—	3.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	89%	82.6°F	2.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	76%	83.3°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	67%	82.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	59%	80.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	80.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	40%	76.9°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261026-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗