WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KTUS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 83°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 11 · 10:34 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
87%
WN2
84%
AIFS
77%
HRES
51%
Consensus
76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 69.0¢Risks 68.95u
VS
HRESNO 31.1¢Risks 31.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +31.05u · HRES −31.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 76.9% · 2026-10-11T07:32:56+00:00AIFS Single: 76.9% · 2026-10-11T08:18:05+00:00AIFS Single: 76.9% · 2026-10-11T09:03:13+00:00AIFS Single: 76.9% · 2026-10-11T09:48:19+00:00AIFS Single: 76.9% · 2026-10-11T10:34:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.3% · 2026-10-11T07:32:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.3% · 2026-10-11T08:18:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.3% · 2026-10-11T09:03:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.3% · 2026-10-11T09:48:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.3% · 2026-10-11T10:34:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.7% · 2026-10-11T07:32:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.7% · 2026-10-11T08:18:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.7% · 2026-10-11T09:03:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.7% · 2026-10-11T09:48:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.7% · 2026-10-11T10:34:29+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-11T07:32:56+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-11T08:18:05+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-11T09:03:13+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-11T09:48:19+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-11T10:34:29+00:0010-11 07:3210-11 09:0310-11 10:34
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRES
2026-10-11T10:34:29+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRES
2026-10-11T07:32:56+00:0076.9%87.3%83.7%50.6%
2026-10-11T08:18:05+00:0076.9%87.3%83.7%50.6%
2026-10-11T09:03:13+00:0076.9%87.3%83.7%50.6%
2026-10-11T09:48:19+00:0076.9%87.3%83.7%50.6%
2026-10-11T10:34:29+00:0076.9%87.3%83.7%50.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble87%87.4°F4.3°F2026-10-10 00:000.0161
WeatherNext 284%87.7°F5.3°F2026-10-10 18:000.0266
AIFS Single77%86.6°F5.6°F2026-10-11 00:000.0534
National Blend54%83.0°F5.5°F2026-10-11 00:000.2153
IFS HRES51%82.6°F6.3°F2026-10-11 00:000.2440

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261018-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 83°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗