KTUS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 83°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 11 · 10:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

84%

77%

51%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 69.0¢Risks 68.95u

HRESNO 31.1¢Risks 31.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +31.05u · HRES −31.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	61.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	—	—	—	78.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	65.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	3.0%	—	—	81.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	63.0%	—	—	73.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	44.9%	—	53.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	51.3%	—	—	63.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	45.4%	—	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	51.3%	—	—	61.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	45.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	42.3%	34.9%	39.6%	0.0%	—	47.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	59.4%	34.3%	60.1%	75.7%	—	51.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	64.2%	60.6%	53.8%	76.1%	—	58.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	64.8%	33.7%	8.1%	43.6%	—	47.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	58.3%	35.3%	28.6%	38.5%	—	46.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	55.1%	4.3%	35.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	37.1%	37.1%	26.9%	—	30.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.9%	31.8%	48.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	16.6%	41.8%	63.6%	—	41.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	19.6%	43.4%	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	3.4%	37.6%	50.0%	—	46.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	1.3%	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	4.4%	0.6%	78.1%	—	58.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	16.3%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	3.1%	7.7%	86.3%	—	40.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	25.8%	2.1%	30.5%	0.0%	—	45.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	1.3%	0.0%	93.2%	—	36.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	51.2%	12.6%	94.5%	—	35.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	27.6%	65.8%	34.2%	91.0%	26.6%	56.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	61.5%	44.9%	87.2%	—	52.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	59.3%	25.1%	91.1%	60.6%	44.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	19.1%	73.5%	86.8%	—	51.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	51.4%	69.5%	76.6%	45.7%	35.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	51.5%	63.3%	77.6%	—	51.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	51.6%	79.7%	63.9%	42.1%	68.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	29.5%	63.0%	80.8%	67.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	87%	87.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-10 00:00	0.0161
WeatherNext 2	84%	87.7°F	5.3°F	2026-10-10 18:00	0.0266
AIFS Single	77%	86.6°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0534
National Blend	54%	83.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.2153
IFS HRES	51%	82.6°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.2440

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261018-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 83°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗