KTUS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≤ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 04:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

38%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 19.4¢Risks 19.45u

HRESNO 80.5¢Risks 80.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +80.55u · HRES −80.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T04:42:44+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T11:21:07+00:00	3.2%	7.0%	5.9%	14.9%	3.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:17+00:00	3.2%	7.0%	5.9%	14.9%	3.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	3.2%	7.0%	5.9%	14.9%	3.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00	1.9%	7.0%	5.9%	14.9%	3.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:54+00:00	1.9%	7.1%	5.9%	14.9%	2.8%
2026-10-14T15:12:51+00:00	1.9%	7.3%	5.9%	14.9%	2.8%
2026-10-14T15:58:00+00:00	1.9%	7.3%	5.9%	14.9%	2.8%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	1.9%	7.3%	5.9%	14.9%	2.8%
2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00	1.9%	7.3%	9.4%	14.9%	2.8%
2026-10-14T18:13:24+00:00	1.9%	7.3%	9.4%	14.9%	2.8%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	1.9%	7.3%	9.4%	14.9%	2.8%
2026-10-14T19:43:43+00:00	4.9%	7.3%	9.4%	6.9%	8.9%
2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00	4.9%	7.3%	9.4%	6.9%	8.9%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	4.9%	7.3%	9.4%	6.9%	8.9%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	4.9%	7.3%	9.4%	6.9%	8.9%
2026-10-14T22:44:13+00:00	4.9%	7.3%	9.4%	6.9%	8.9%
2026-10-14T23:29:36+00:00	4.9%	7.4%	13.5%	6.9%	8.9%
2026-10-15T00:15:32+00:00	4.9%	7.4%	13.5%	6.9%	8.9%
2026-10-15T01:01:14+00:00	4.9%	7.4%	13.5%	6.9%	8.9%
2026-10-15T01:46:24+00:00	0.5%	7.4%	13.5%	6.9%	8.9%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	0.5%	7.4%	13.5%	6.9%	8.9%
2026-10-15T03:16:40+00:00	0.5%	7.4%	13.5%	6.9%	8.9%
2026-10-15T04:02:45+00:00	0.5%	7.4%	13.5%	6.9%	8.9%
2026-10-15T04:48:14+00:00	0.5%	7.4%	13.5%	6.9%	8.9%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	0.5%	7.4%	4.0%	6.9%	8.9%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	0.5%	7.4%	4.0%	6.9%	8.9%
2026-10-15T07:03:44+00:00	0.5%	7.4%	4.0%	6.9%	8.9%
2026-10-15T07:50:46+00:00	2.5%	7.4%	4.0%	1.8%	29.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:54+00:00	2.5%	7.4%	4.0%	1.8%	29.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:49+00:00	2.5%	7.4%	4.0%	1.8%	29.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:45+00:00	2.5%	7.4%	4.0%	1.8%	29.0%
2026-10-15T10:53:55+00:00	2.5%	7.4%	12.4%	1.8%	29.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:46+00:00	2.5%	7.4%	12.4%	1.8%	29.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:59+00:00	2.5%	2.6%	12.4%	1.8%	29.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:45+00:00	2.5%	2.6%	12.4%	1.8%	29.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:59+00:00	4.2%	2.7%	12.4%	1.8%	29.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:29+00:00	4.2%	2.7%	12.4%	1.8%	29.0%
2026-10-15T15:34:48+00:00	4.2%	3.4%	12.4%	1.8%	29.0%
2026-10-15T16:20:18+00:00	4.2%	3.4%	12.4%	1.8%	29.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:27+00:00	4.2%	3.4%	8.6%	1.8%	29.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	4.2%	3.4%	8.6%	1.8%	29.0%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	4.2%	3.4%	8.6%	1.8%	29.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	4.2%	3.4%	8.6%	1.8%	29.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	1.2%	2.7%	3.8%	1.1%	37.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	1.2%	2.7%	10.4%	1.1%	37.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:46+00:00	1.2%	2.7%	10.4%	1.1%	37.8%
2026-10-17T00:55:02+00:00	1.2%	2.7%	10.4%	1.1%	37.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:15+00:00	1.4%	2.7%	10.4%	1.1%	37.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:25+00:00	1.4%	2.7%	10.4%	1.1%	37.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:33+00:00	1.4%	2.7%	10.4%	1.1%	37.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	1.4%	2.7%	10.4%	1.1%	37.8%
2026-10-17T04:42:44+00:00	1.4%	2.7%	10.4%	1.1%	37.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	38%	74.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.1429
National Blend	12%	81.0°F	6.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0146
WeatherNext 2	10%	77.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0108
IFS Ensemble	3%	82.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0007
AIFS Single	1%	82.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0002
IFS HRES	1%	82.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0001
NWS forecast	<1%	82.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 73°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261018-TMAX-LE73
Opened Oct 14 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: Tucson stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 73°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗