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KTUS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≤ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 04:42 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
38%
WN2
10%
EPS
3%
AIFS
1%
HRES
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 19.4¢Risks 19.45u
VS
HRESNO 80.5¢Risks 80.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +80.55u · HRES −80.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 98.1% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.8% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.3% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.8% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.5% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.5% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 75.2% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.6% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.0% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.0% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.0% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 65.3% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.5% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.2% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.4% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.8% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.4% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.2% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.2% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.5% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.6% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 41.5% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 13.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 35.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 49.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 26.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 27.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 30.5% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 34.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 69.8% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.4% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.7% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.2% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.9% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.3% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.3% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.4% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.4% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.2% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 34.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.2% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.1% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.4% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.4% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 57.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 96.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 97.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.8% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 96.7% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 8.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 99.9% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 1.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 63.1% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.4% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.3% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.4% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.4% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.0% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.8% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.3% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.1% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.1% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.5% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.5% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.6% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.9% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0010-03 12:0010-11 06:0010-18 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:0098.1%————63.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:0010.8%—————
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:0019.3%————1.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:002.2%—————
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:004.7%————2.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:0012.8%—————
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:0011.5%————5.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:003.3%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:004.9%————2.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:003.1%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:005.5%————6.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:003.2%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:005.1%————4.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:001.3%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:0075.2%————4.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:009.6%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:0031.0%————4.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0020.0%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0020.0%————6.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0065.3%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0034.5%————4.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:004.8%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:006.3%————1.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:004.0%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:003.0%—69.8%——1.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0010.0%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0030.2%—4.0%——2.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:009.4%—6.4%———
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:007.8%—6.7%——3.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:008.4%—12.2%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:006.2%—5.9%——3.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:004.5%—7.3%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:008.2%11.5%9.3%96.7%—6.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:002.9%—4.4%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:002.9%10.6%2.8%0.9%—4.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:002.2%—5.4%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:001.8%2.3%3.5%0.8%—2.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:001.8%—5.2%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:001.5%8.4%34.5%5.1%—4.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:001.5%—21.2%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:001.8%6.6%9.3%5.6%—3.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:002.0%41.5%6.1%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0017.2%5.0%5.0%8.6%—7.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0011.2%6.0%2.4%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0021.6%13.4%3.0%0.8%—3.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:003.0%10.0%2.4%——26.9%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0015.3%35.7%3.0%1.4%—1.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0021.1%49.0%5.1%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:005.2%26.8%57.2%0.1%—0.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:006.5%8.0%96.2%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:005.0%27.3%14.9%0.0%—1.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:002.9%30.5%2.1%99.9%—0.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:006.8%34.1%97.8%0.0%—1.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:007.0%0.3%5.8%0.0%—0.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:001.3%0.1%0.8%0.0%1.4%0.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:002.2%0.1%0.3%0.0%—0.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:002.6%0.1%0.9%0.0%0.1%0.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:001.1%1.2%0.0%0.0%—0.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.5%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:003.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON38%74.6°F3.5°F2026-10-16 12:000.1429
National Blend12%81.0°F6.4°F2026-10-16 06:000.0146
WeatherNext 210%77.4°F3.1°F2026-10-16 12:000.0108
IFS Ensemble3%82.2°F4.5°F2026-10-16 00:000.0007
AIFS Single1%82.5°F4.1°F2026-10-16 18:000.0002
IFS HRES1%82.9°F4.1°F2026-10-16 12:000.0001
NWS forecast<1%82.0°F3.1°F2026-10-17 03:000.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 73°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261018-TMAX-LE73
Opened Oct 14 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: Tucson stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 73°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗