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KTUS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
79%
WN2
78%
AIFS
58%
ICON
52%
EPS
50%
Consensus
69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 64.5¢Risks 64.55u
VS
EPSNO 35.5¢Risks 35.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +35.45u · EPS −35.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 72.3% · 2026-10-19T04:31:45+00:00AIFS Single: 72.3% · 2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00AIFS Single: 72.3% · 2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00AIFS Single: 72.3% · 2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00AIFS Single: 61.0% · 2026-10-19T07:34:08+00:00AIFS Single: 61.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00AIFS Single: 61.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00AIFS Single: 61.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00AIFS Single: 61.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00AIFS Single: 61.0% · 2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00AIFS Single: 61.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00AIFS Single: 61.0% · 2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00AIFS Single: 58.0% · 2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00AIFS Single: 58.1% · 2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.4% · 2026-10-19T04:31:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.4% · 2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.4% · 2026-10-19T07:34:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.6% · 2026-10-19T04:31:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.0% · 2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.0% · 2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.0% · 2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.0% · 2026-10-19T07:34:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.5% · 2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.5% · 2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.5% · 2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.5% · 2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.5% · 2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00IFS HRES: 92.1% · 2026-10-19T04:31:45+00:00IFS HRES: 92.1% · 2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00IFS HRES: 92.1% · 2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00IFS HRES: 92.1% · 2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00IFS HRES: 79.1% · 2026-10-19T07:34:08+00:00IFS HRES: 79.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00IFS HRES: 79.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00IFS HRES: 79.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS HRES: 79.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00IFS HRES: 79.1% · 2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00IFS HRES: 79.1% · 2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00IFS HRES: 79.1% · 2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00IFS HRES: 79.1% · 2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00IFS HRES: 79.1% · 2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00ICON: 32.7% · 2026-10-19T04:31:45+00:00ICON: 32.7% · 2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00ICON: 32.7% · 2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00ICON: 32.7% · 2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00ICON: 51.1% · 2026-10-19T07:34:08+00:00ICON: 51.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00ICON: 51.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00ICON: 51.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00ICON: 51.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00ICON: 51.1% · 2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00ICON: 51.1% · 2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00ICON: 51.1% · 2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00ICON: 51.1% · 2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00ICON: 52.3% · 2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:0010-19 04:3110-19 09:4910-19 14:28
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:31:45+00:0072.3%66.4%68.6%92.1%32.7%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:0072.3%66.4%73.0%92.1%32.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:0072.3%66.4%73.0%92.1%32.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:0072.3%66.4%73.0%92.1%32.7%
2026-10-19T07:34:08+00:0061.0%66.4%73.0%79.1%51.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:0061.0%66.4%73.0%79.1%51.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:0061.0%66.4%73.0%79.1%51.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:0061.0%66.4%73.0%79.1%51.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:0061.0%66.4%73.0%79.1%51.1%
2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:0061.0%50.0%77.5%79.1%51.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:0061.0%50.0%77.5%79.1%51.1%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:0061.0%50.0%77.5%79.1%51.1%
2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:0058.0%50.0%77.5%79.1%51.1%
2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:0058.1%50.0%77.5%79.1%52.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES79%89.5°F3.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend78%89.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 278%88.7°F2.9°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single58%87.3°F3.9°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
NWS forecast56%87.0°F3.1°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
ICON52%86.7°F3.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble50%86.5°F4.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261020-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 87°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗