KTUS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

78%

58%

52%

50%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 64.5¢Risks 64.55u

EPSNO 35.5¢Risks 35.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +35.45u · EPS −35.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	—	—	—	61.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	54.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	39.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	50.6%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	56.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	20.2%	—	—	47.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	40.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	22.3%	0.0%	31.1%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	54.2%	38.2%	0.0%	—	38.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	21.5%	44.2%	28.5%	—	37.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	28.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	15.1%	24.5%	30.3%	1.6%	—	47.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	34.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	10.4%	24.2%	72.6%	—	42.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	6.6%	30.8%	59.1%	—	40.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	3.1%	15.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	46.5%	22.1%	58.7%	—	24.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	48.2%	26.4%	—	—	40.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	25.9%	48.2%	20.9%	79.7%	—	46.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	27.6%	69.9%	31.8%	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	72.9%	39.4%	83.5%	—	60.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	21.9%	81.7%	46.0%	—	—	68.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	73.2%	51.0%	93.6%	0.0%	60.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	29.8%	69.3%	62.5%	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	46.7%	64.9%	91.9%	—	62.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	33.6%	70.4%	0.0%	—	65.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	35.2%	73.0%	92.8%	0.0%	70.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	60.7%	80.1%	79.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	66.9%	80.9%	74.4%	26.6%	46.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	57.7%	81.8%	78.1%	—	42.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	54.0%	85.9%	79.0%	25.1%	43.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	70.0%	83.6%	70.0%	—	40.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	64.2%	89.2%	45.7%	23.4%	64.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	92.0%	48.5%	—	61.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	79%	89.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	78%	89.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	78%	88.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	87.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	87.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	52%	86.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	86.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261020-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 87°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗