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KTUS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 14 · 10:35 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
97%
WN2
88%
HRES
86%
AIFS
49%
ICON
22%
Consensus
81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 59.5¢Risks 59.50u
VS
ICONNO 40.5¢Risks 40.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +40.50u · ICON −40.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 48.6% · 2026-10-14T10:35:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.4% · 2026-10-14T10:35:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.2% · 2026-10-14T10:35:14+00:00IFS HRES: 86.2% · 2026-10-14T10:35:14+00:00ICON: 21.6% · 2026-10-14T10:35:14+00:0010-14 10:35
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

One recorded snapshot. Additional runs will extend this chart.

2026-10-14T10:35:14+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-14T10:35:14+00:0048.6%97.4%88.2%86.2%21.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble97%85.1°F3.9°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 288%83.9°F5.4°F2026-10-13 12:00Pending
IFS HRES86%84.4°F6.3°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
National Blend54%78.0°F4.6°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
AIFS Single49%77.3°F5.6°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
ICON22%69.7°F9.9°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261021-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 14 · 10:35 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 78°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗