KTUS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 14 · 10:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

88%

86%

49%

22%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 59.5¢Risks 59.50u

ICONNO 40.5¢Risks 40.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +40.50u · ICON −40.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	86.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	90.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	87.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	91.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	92.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	93.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	92.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	85.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	82.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	69.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	71.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	24.9%	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	66.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	—	—	—	76.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	—	—	—	55.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	40.3%	—	—	57.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	1.8%	85.7%	—	—	78.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	65.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	65.7%	89.5%	57.0%	0.3%	—	90.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	80.1%	76.3%	96.9%	—	83.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	87.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	59.8%	83.1%	62.7%	—	88.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	82.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	98.1%	90.7%	95.0%	—	82.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	97.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	60.7%	89.5%	91.3%	81.0%	—	89.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	91.8%	97.7%	—	—	9.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	95.9%	85.9%	98.7%	89.9%	—	98.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	80.4%	86.0%	99.2%	—	—	98.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	93.7%	98.2%	99.6%	100.0%	—	99.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	97.7%	84.1%	99.8%	—	—	99.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	98.3%	58.7%	99.9%	99.4%	—	99.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	97.3%	47.0%	99.8%	—	—	99.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	97.8%	71.5%	99.6%	94.5%	—	99.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	98.6%	99.0%	99.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	97.9%	99.8%	99.9%	99.9%	—	99.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	95.5%	100.0%	99.9%	1.3%	—	99.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	97.3%	100.0%	100.0%	99.5%	0.0%	99.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	96.3%	100.0%	100.0%	99.8%	—	99.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	96.7%	100.0%	99.2%	98.9%	99.7%	99.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	99.8%	100.0%	—	99.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	97%	85.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	83.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	86%	84.4°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	78.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	77.3°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	22%	69.7°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261021-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 14 · 10:35 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 78°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗