KTUS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

88%

85%

82%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 48.4¢Risks 48.40u

ICONNO 51.6¢Risks 51.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +51.60u · ICON −51.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T15:25:26+00:00	51.7%	77.7%	78.2%	59.5%	38.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	51.7%	77.7%	78.2%	59.5%	38.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00	51.7%	77.7%	53.2%	59.5%	38.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:53+00:00	51.7%	77.7%	53.2%	59.5%	38.7%
2026-10-17T18:26:00+00:00	51.7%	77.7%	53.2%	59.5%	38.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:07+00:00	51.7%	77.7%	53.2%	59.5%	38.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:23+00:00	73.6%	77.7%	53.2%	91.6%	71.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:34+00:00	73.6%	77.7%	53.2%	91.6%	71.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:41+00:00	73.6%	77.7%	53.2%	91.6%	71.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	73.6%	77.7%	53.2%	91.6%	71.7%
2026-10-17T22:57:08+00:00	73.6%	77.7%	63.6%	91.6%	71.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:16+00:00	73.6%	77.7%	63.6%	91.6%	71.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:29+00:00	73.6%	77.7%	63.6%	91.6%	71.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00	73.6%	77.7%	63.6%	91.6%	71.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:17+00:00	83.7%	77.7%	63.6%	91.6%	71.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	83.7%	77.7%	63.6%	91.6%	71.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	83.7%	77.7%	63.6%	91.6%	71.7%
2026-10-18T04:15:07+00:00	83.7%	77.7%	63.6%	91.6%	71.7%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	83.7%	77.7%	84.6%	91.6%	71.7%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	83.7%	77.7%	84.6%	91.6%	71.7%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	83.7%	77.7%	84.6%	91.6%	71.7%
2026-10-18T07:15:41+00:00	83.7%	77.7%	84.6%	91.6%	71.7%
2026-10-18T08:02:04+00:00	87.4%	77.7%	84.6%	91.4%	5.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	87.4%	77.7%	84.6%	91.4%	5.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	87.4%	77.7%	84.6%	91.4%	5.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	87.4%	77.7%	84.6%	91.4%	5.3%
2026-10-18T11:03:07+00:00	87.4%	85.6%	88.2%	91.4%	5.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00	87.4%	85.6%	88.2%	91.4%	5.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:00	87.4%	85.6%	88.2%	91.4%	5.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:05+00:00	87.4%	85.6%	88.2%	91.4%	5.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00	81.9%	84.8%	88.2%	91.4%	5.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	91%	91.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	89.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	85%	89.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	82%	89.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	87.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	86.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
ICON	5%	79.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261021-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 86°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗