KTUS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

88%

85%

82%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 48.4¢Risks 48.40u

ICONNO 51.6¢Risks 51.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +51.60u · ICON −51.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	44.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	25.1%	—	27.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	28.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	3.2%	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	21.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	30.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	6.0%	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.0%	38.7%	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	16.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	43.7%	10.9%	0.0%	—	46.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	26.6%	22.6%	65.7%	—	31.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	10.0%	28.3%	11.4%	—	36.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	25.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	68.4%	39.0%	51.6%	—	24.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	59.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.0%	33.8%	37.7%	21.3%	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	37.4%	61.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	49.1%	24.8%	67.8%	31.4%	—	62.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	23.5%	72.1%	—	—	64.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	37.3%	60.0%	79.7%	96.2%	—	73.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	53.8%	18.4%	85.2%	—	—	71.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	56.8%	4.2%	88.4%	71.3%	—	67.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	1.9%	81.0%	—	—	67.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	6.7%	71.5%	32.1%	—	77.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	57.4%	73.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	43.5%	73.6%	83.1%	77.8%	—	62.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	28.6%	84.6%	82.5%	0.0%	—	52.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	34.1%	91.5%	86.6%	60.4%	0.0%	59.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	89.2%	90.8%	69.6%	—	52.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	83.4%	46.3%	41.3%	59.9%	70.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	61.5%	80.0%	—	68.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	91%	91.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	89.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	85%	89.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	82%	89.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	87.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	86.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
ICON	5%	79.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261021-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 86°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗