KTUS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

85%

79%

77%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 47.2¢Risks 47.25u

ICONNO 52.8¢Risks 52.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +52.75u · ICON −52.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:56:19+00:00	75.1%	76.9%	81.3%	87.4%	3.2%
2026-10-18T15:41:42+00:00	75.1%	76.6%	81.3%	87.4%	3.2%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	75.1%	76.6%	81.3%	87.4%	3.2%
2026-10-18T17:12:12+00:00	75.1%	76.6%	75.3%	87.4%	3.2%
2026-10-18T17:57:42+00:00	75.1%	76.6%	75.3%	87.4%	3.2%
2026-10-18T18:42:50+00:00	75.1%	76.6%	75.3%	87.4%	3.2%
2026-10-18T19:28:03+00:00	75.9%	76.6%	75.3%	84.9%	6.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:11+00:00	75.9%	76.6%	75.3%	84.9%	6.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:21+00:00	75.9%	76.6%	75.3%	84.9%	6.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	75.9%	76.6%	75.3%	84.9%	6.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	75.9%	76.6%	75.3%	84.9%	6.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00	75.9%	76.6%	88.2%	84.9%	6.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	75.9%	76.6%	88.2%	84.9%	6.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:12+00:00	75.9%	76.6%	88.2%	84.9%	6.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:41+00:00	79.4%	76.6%	88.2%	84.9%	6.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:50+00:00	79.4%	76.6%	88.2%	84.9%	6.3%
2026-10-19T03:00:01+00:00	79.4%	76.6%	88.2%	84.9%	6.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00	79.4%	76.6%	88.2%	84.9%	6.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	88%	90.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	85%	91.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	90.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	77%	88.9°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	87.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	87.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	6%	80.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261021-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 87°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗