KTUS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

85%

79%

77%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 47.2¢Risks 47.25u

ICONNO 52.8¢Risks 52.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +52.75u · ICON −52.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	38.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	2.3%	—	—	11.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	17.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	10.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	4.3%	—	—	10.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	43.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.0%	32.4%	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	12.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	36.9%	7.9%	0.0%	—	39.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	21.0%	17.5%	58.7%	—	24.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	29.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	7.0%	22.2%	8.1%	—	29.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	20.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	61.0%	31.6%	43.6%	—	18.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	51.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	26.5%	30.0%	15.7%	—	25.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	29.6%	52.6%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	18.4%	59.6%	24.1%	—	54.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.1%	17.2%	64.1%	—	—	56.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	50.9%	72.6%	93.9%	—	65.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	44.3%	12.7%	79.0%	—	—	63.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	2.4%	82.9%	62.4%	—	58.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	1.0%	73.5%	—	—	58.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	37.8%	4.0%	62.2%	23.5%	—	68.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	46.8%	64.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	63.9%	75.3%	68.9%	—	52.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	19.8%	76.9%	74.2%	0.0%	—	41.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	24.2%	86.0%	79.3%	48.8%	0.0%	47.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	82.5%	84.8%	58.4%	—	40.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	16.6%	74.4%	34.2%	29.8%	47.5%	58.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	48.7%	69.8%	—	56.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	88%	90.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	85%	91.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	90.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	77%	88.9°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	87.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	87.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	6%	80.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261021-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 87°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗