KTUS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST95%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

97%

96%

91%

Consensus

95%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 95.2¢Risks 23.80u

AIFSNO 4.8¢Risks 1.20u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +1.20u · AIFS −1.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:50:46+00:00	17.7%	84.1%	47.8%	68.2%	27.3%
2026-10-15T08:35:54+00:00	17.7%	84.1%	47.8%	68.2%	27.3%
2026-10-15T09:21:49+00:00	17.7%	84.1%	47.8%	68.2%	27.3%
2026-10-15T10:07:45+00:00	17.7%	84.1%	47.8%	68.2%	27.3%
2026-10-17T04:42:44+00:00	53.7%	85.6%	81.6%	90.9%	96.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:32+00:00	53.7%	85.6%	91.8%	90.9%	96.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:41+00:00	53.7%	85.6%	91.8%	90.9%	96.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:51+00:00	53.7%	85.6%	91.8%	90.9%	96.1%
2026-10-17T07:45:31+00:00	98.8%	85.6%	91.8%	96.0%	97.9%
2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00	98.8%	85.6%	91.8%	96.0%	97.9%
2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00	98.8%	85.6%	91.8%	96.0%	97.9%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	98.8%	85.6%	91.8%	96.0%	97.9%
2026-10-17T10:46:57+00:00	98.8%	85.6%	91.8%	96.0%	97.9%
2026-10-17T11:32:20+00:00	98.8%	97.1%	99.2%	96.0%	97.9%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	98.8%	97.1%	99.2%	96.0%	97.9%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	98.8%	97.1%	99.2%	96.0%	97.9%
2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00	91.2%	97.1%	99.2%	96.0%	97.9%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	91.2%	97.1%	99.2%	95.9%	97.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	86.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	98%	88.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	97%	88.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	96%	86.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	91%	83.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
National Blend	65%	79.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261022-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 77°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗