KTUS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST95%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

97%

96%

91%

Consensus

95%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 95.2¢Risks 23.80u

AIFSNO 4.8¢Risks 1.20u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +1.20u · AIFS −1.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	88.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	92.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	90.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	93.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	91.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	83.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	65.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	58.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	63.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	—	—	—	42.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	70.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	71.5%	—	—	65.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	61.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	53.9%	—	—	88.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	12.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	3.6%	10.2%	—	—	65.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	14.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	16.2%	25.7%	0.4%	—	70.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	34.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	96.1%	50.0%	94.1%	—	63.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	95.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	13.8%	95.6%	40.9%	75.5%	—	68.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	91.6%	97.3%	83.7%	97.5%	—	94.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	93.0%	—	—	94.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	84.8%	97.7%	95.5%	98.0%	—	97.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	92.5%	73.3%	96.6%	—	—	96.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	93.0%	96.2%	97.5%	99.1%	—	92.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	90.4%	95.9%	97.8%	—	—	91.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	87.1%	70.3%	96.1%	43.6%	—	87.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	95.2%	96.6%	89.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	88.9%	96.0%	97.1%	94.4%	—	96.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	70.9%	93.7%	92.7%	—	—	12.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	69.7%	98.6%	89.7%	—	95.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	75.5%	98.6%	—	—	93.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	67.9%	79.4%	98.1%	98.3%	99.8%	98.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	77.7%	—	99.5%	6.0%	—	98.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	86.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	98%	88.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	97%	88.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	96%	86.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	91%	83.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
National Blend	65%	79.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261022-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 77°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗