KTUS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

79%

55%

42%

36%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 65.4¢Risks 65.40u

AIFSNO 34.6¢Risks 34.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +34.60u · AIFS −34.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T10:53:55+00:00	13.5%	80.4%	42.9%	62.4%	24.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:46+00:00	13.5%	80.4%	42.9%	62.4%	24.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:59+00:00	13.5%	80.4%	42.9%	62.4%	24.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:45+00:00	13.5%	80.4%	42.9%	62.4%	24.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:59+00:00	20.5%	80.4%	43.0%	62.2%	24.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:29+00:00	20.5%	80.4%	43.0%	62.2%	24.0%
2026-10-15T15:34:48+00:00	20.5%	79.0%	43.0%	62.2%	24.0%
2026-10-15T16:20:18+00:00	20.5%	79.0%	43.0%	62.2%	24.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:27+00:00	20.5%	79.0%	72.3%	62.2%	24.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	20.5%	79.0%	72.3%	62.2%	24.0%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	20.5%	79.0%	72.3%	62.2%	24.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	20.5%	79.0%	72.3%	62.2%	24.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:24+00:00	19.5%	79.0%	72.3%	95.1%	42.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:39+00:00	19.5%	79.0%	72.3%	95.1%	42.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	19.5%	79.0%	72.3%	95.1%	42.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:56+00:00	19.5%	79.0%	72.3%	95.1%	42.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:07+00:00	19.5%	79.0%	54.7%	95.1%	42.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	19.5%	79.0%	54.7%	95.1%	42.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:29+00:00	19.5%	79.0%	54.7%	95.1%	42.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:55+00:00	35.7%	79.0%	54.7%	95.1%	42.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:23+00:00	35.7%	79.0%	54.7%	95.1%	42.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:37+00:00	35.7%	79.0%	54.7%	95.1%	42.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00	35.7%	79.0%	54.7%	95.1%	42.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	95%	88.1°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	79%	83.7°F	7.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	55%	78.1°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	78.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
ICON	42%	75.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	36%	75.4°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261022-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 78°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗