KTUS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

79%

55%

42%

36%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 65.4¢Risks 65.40u

AIFSNO 34.6¢Risks 34.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +34.60u · AIFS −34.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	86.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	90.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	88.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	91.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	89.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	60.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	52.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	—	—	—	36.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	64.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	65.9%	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	55.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	47.4%	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	9.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	2.5%	7.5%	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	11.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	12.2%	20.4%	0.2%	—	64.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	94.3%	42.7%	91.6%	—	56.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	93.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	93.5%	33.7%	69.1%	—	61.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	43.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	88.1%	95.7%	78.2%	96.1%	—	92.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	61.3%	—	89.8%	—	—	92.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	79.3%	96.2%	93.2%	96.7%	—	95.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	88.9%	65.8%	94.6%	—	—	94.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	89.5%	94.1%	95.9%	98.4%	—	89.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	93.5%	96.2%	—	—	87.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	81.6%	61.8%	93.7%	34.7%	—	82.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	92.3%	94.4%	84.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	83.5%	93.5%	95.1%	91.0%	—	93.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	90.0%	88.6%	—	—	8.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	54.1%	60.2%	97.4%	84.3%	—	92.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	66.5%	97.4%	—	—	89.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	57.6%	70.8%	96.5%	96.7%	99.5%	97.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	98.8%	3.3%	—	96.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	95%	88.1°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	79%	83.7°F	7.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	55%	78.1°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	78.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
ICON	42%	75.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	36%	75.4°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261022-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 78°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗