KTUS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

81%

56%

39%

12%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 48.6¢Risks 48.60u

ICONNO 51.4¢Risks 51.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +51.40u · ICON −51.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:56:19+00:00	75.0%	80.4%	74.9%	63.3%	71.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:42+00:00	75.0%	81.2%	74.9%	63.3%	71.7%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	75.0%	81.2%	74.9%	63.3%	71.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:12+00:00	75.0%	81.2%	77.4%	63.3%	71.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:42+00:00	75.0%	81.2%	77.4%	63.3%	71.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:50+00:00	75.0%	81.2%	77.4%	63.3%	71.7%
2026-10-18T19:28:03+00:00	68.4%	81.2%	77.4%	56.4%	26.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:11+00:00	68.4%	81.2%	77.4%	56.4%	26.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:21+00:00	68.4%	81.2%	77.4%	56.4%	26.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	68.4%	81.2%	77.4%	56.4%	26.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	68.4%	81.2%	77.4%	56.4%	26.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00	68.4%	81.2%	70.4%	56.4%	26.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	68.4%	81.2%	70.4%	56.4%	26.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:12+00:00	68.4%	81.2%	70.4%	56.4%	26.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:41+00:00	82.0%	81.2%	70.4%	56.4%	26.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:50+00:00	82.0%	81.2%	70.4%	56.4%	26.9%
2026-10-19T03:00:01+00:00	82.0%	81.2%	70.4%	56.4%	26.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00	82.0%	81.2%	70.4%	56.4%	26.9%
2026-10-20T04:06:03+00:00	34.5%	75.1%	67.2%	76.3%	14.1%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	34.5%	75.1%	67.2%	76.3%	14.1%
2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00	34.5%	75.1%	66.2%	76.3%	14.1%
2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00	34.5%	75.1%	66.2%	76.3%	14.1%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	34.5%	75.1%	66.2%	76.3%	14.1%
2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00	39.3%	75.1%	66.2%	76.3%	11.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00	39.3%	75.1%	66.2%	76.3%	11.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	39.3%	75.1%	66.2%	76.3%	11.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00	39.3%	75.1%	66.2%	76.3%	11.4%
2026-10-20T10:54:35+00:00	39.3%	80.8%	56.4%	85.3%	11.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:50+00:00	39.3%	80.8%	56.4%	85.3%	11.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00	39.3%	80.8%	56.4%	85.3%	11.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	39.3%	80.8%	56.4%	85.3%	11.4%
2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00	39.3%	80.8%	56.4%	85.3%	11.9%
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00	39.3%	80.8%	56.4%	85.3%	11.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	85%	87.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	81%	87.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	56%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	84.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	84.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	39%	82.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	12%	79.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261022-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 84°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗