KTUS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

80%

56%

39%

12%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 48.6¢Risks 48.60u

ICONNO 51.4¢Risks 51.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +51.40u · ICON −51.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	29.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	—	11.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	28.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	29.6%	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	20.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	14.8%	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	0.7%	—	—	21.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.3%	3.0%	0.0%	—	24.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	68.3%	10.0%	60.8%	—	17.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	66.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	64.2%	5.8%	25.8%	—	19.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	49.2%	69.8%	33.7%	71.2%	—	58.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	51.6%	—	—	57.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	70.0%	59.1%	72.1%	—	68.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	47.4%	19.0%	62.6%	—	—	62.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	47.4%	59.6%	66.2%	79.8%	—	46.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	56.3%	66.6%	—	—	41.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	31.4%	13.9%	55.5%	3.8%	—	32.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	56.6%	34.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	51.9%	57.7%	45.1%	—	52.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	41.1%	38.2%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	9.8%	65.1%	29.4%	—	44.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	12.1%	63.5%	—	—	36.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	13.7%	56.5%	57.6%	81.7%	61.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	71.4%	0.0%	—	55.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	85%	87.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	80%	87.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	56%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	84.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	84.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	39%	82.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	12%	79.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261022-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 84°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗