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KTUS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
34%
EPS
28%
AIFS
4%
WN2
4%
ICON
<1%
Consensus
3%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 17.1¢Risks 17.05u
VS
ICONNO 83.0¢Risks 82.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +82.95u · ICON −82.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.9% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.6% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.5% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.0% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.0% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 26.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 21.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 24.8% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 23.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.6% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.2% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.9% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.6% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.8% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 16.7% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.5% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.6% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.9% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 20.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 26.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 25.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 31.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.8% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 7.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 23.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.1% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 38.5% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 33.5% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 42.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 36.9% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.4% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.6% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.6% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.7% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.7% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.6% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-07 12:0010-14 00:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0013.7%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0036.9%————30.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0031.6%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0038.5%————38.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0039.0%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:002.0%————33.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0034.0%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0034.0%————42.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0030.1%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:000.0%————36.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:004.8%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:000.0%————22.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:000.0%————22.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:000.3%—————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:000.2%————9.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:000.6%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:000.0%————5.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:000.6%—————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.1%————6.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:000.8%————1.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:000.0%————2.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:000.0%—6.9%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:000.0%—6.9%——5.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:000.0%—3.6%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:000.9%—2.1%——17.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:000.0%—0.1%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%——3.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:000.0%—0.1%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.2%0.0%—4.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.0%—0.3%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.0%26.6%0.9%20.4%—2.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.0%—23.8%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.0%21.6%0.3%3.6%—2.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.0%—0.6%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0011.1%24.8%5.3%26.1%—16.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:001.5%—11.8%——14.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:004.5%23.2%15.2%25.1%—21.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:008.8%1.5%16.7%——16.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:008.3%14.1%18.4%31.4%—8.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:005.2%11.6%17.8%——5.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:003.0%0.7%10.6%0.1%—3.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:007.7%10.4%3.4%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:002.5%7.9%10.2%5.6%—8.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.3%4.2%3.5%——0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.2%12.3%1.8%—4.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.1%0.3%10.6%——2.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.3%7.0%7.3%23.0%9.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.2%—12.9%0.0%—6.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES34%87.8°F4.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble28%87.1°F4.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast5%84.0°F3.4°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
National Blend4%84.0°F3.2°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
AIFS Single4%82.4°F4.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 24%84.0°F3.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON<1%79.3°F3.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261022-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 15 · 17:05 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Tucson · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗