KTUS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

95%

94%

91%

69%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 82.5¢Risks 82.55u

ICONNO 17.5¢Risks 17.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +17.45u · ICON −17.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:42:44+00:00	41.7%	78.0%	65.3%	46.9%	67.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:32+00:00	41.7%	78.0%	69.5%	46.9%	67.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:41+00:00	41.7%	78.0%	69.5%	46.9%	67.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:51+00:00	41.7%	78.0%	69.5%	46.9%	67.8%
2026-10-17T07:45:32+00:00	77.0%	78.0%	69.5%	67.0%	55.6%
2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00	77.0%	78.0%	69.5%	67.0%	55.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00	77.0%	78.0%	69.5%	67.0%	55.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:52+00:00	77.0%	78.0%	69.5%	67.0%	55.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:57+00:00	77.0%	78.0%	69.5%	67.0%	55.6%
2026-10-17T11:32:20+00:00	77.0%	90.5%	79.2%	67.0%	55.6%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	77.0%	90.5%	79.2%	67.0%	55.6%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	77.0%	90.5%	79.2%	67.0%	55.6%
2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00	67.1%	90.5%	79.2%	66.8%	55.6%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	67.1%	90.4%	79.2%	67.0%	55.6%
2026-10-17T15:25:28+00:00	67.1%	90.1%	79.2%	67.0%	55.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	67.1%	90.1%	79.2%	67.0%	55.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00	67.1%	90.1%	67.3%	67.0%	55.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:53+00:00	67.1%	90.1%	67.3%	67.0%	55.6%
2026-10-17T18:26:00+00:00	67.1%	90.1%	67.3%	67.0%	55.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:07+00:00	67.1%	90.1%	67.3%	67.0%	55.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:23+00:00	71.7%	90.1%	67.3%	74.8%	62.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:34+00:00	71.7%	90.1%	67.3%	74.8%	62.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:41+00:00	71.7%	90.1%	67.3%	74.8%	62.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	71.7%	90.1%	67.3%	74.8%	62.1%
2026-10-17T22:57:08+00:00	71.7%	90.1%	65.8%	74.8%	62.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:16+00:00	71.7%	90.1%	65.8%	74.8%	62.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:29+00:00	71.7%	90.1%	65.8%	74.8%	62.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00	71.7%	90.1%	65.8%	74.8%	62.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:17+00:00	81.3%	90.1%	65.8%	74.8%	62.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:25+00:00	81.3%	90.1%	65.8%	74.8%	62.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	81.3%	90.1%	65.8%	74.8%	62.1%
2026-10-18T04:15:08+00:00	81.3%	90.1%	65.8%	74.8%	62.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	81.3%	90.1%	80.4%	74.8%	62.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	81.3%	90.1%	80.4%	74.8%	62.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	81.3%	90.1%	80.4%	74.8%	62.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:41+00:00	81.3%	90.1%	80.4%	74.8%	62.1%
2026-10-18T08:02:04+00:00	91.2%	90.1%	80.4%	43.1%	69.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	91.2%	90.1%	80.4%	43.1%	69.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	91.2%	90.1%	80.4%	43.1%	69.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	91.2%	90.1%	80.4%	43.1%	69.4%
2026-10-18T11:03:07+00:00	91.2%	88.6%	89.3%	43.1%	69.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00	91.2%	88.6%	89.3%	43.1%	69.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:00	91.2%	88.6%	89.3%	43.1%	69.4%
2026-10-18T13:19:05+00:00	91.2%	88.6%	89.3%	43.1%	69.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00	94.2%	88.1%	89.3%	43.1%	69.4%
2026-10-19T04:31:46+00:00	96.4%	88.2%	90.1%	73.9%	74.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00	96.4%	88.2%	95.1%	73.9%	74.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00	96.4%	88.2%	95.1%	73.9%	74.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00	96.4%	88.2%	95.1%	73.9%	74.9%
2026-10-19T07:34:08+00:00	95.1%	88.2%	95.1%	86.0%	83.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	95.1%	88.2%	95.1%	86.0%	83.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	95.1%	88.2%	95.1%	86.0%	83.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	95.1%	88.2%	95.1%	86.0%	83.2%
2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00	95.1%	88.2%	95.1%	86.0%	83.2%
2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00	95.1%	93.6%	95.7%	86.0%	83.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00	95.1%	93.6%	95.7%	86.0%	83.2%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	95.1%	93.6%	95.7%	86.0%	83.2%
2026-10-19T13:37:09+00:00	89.7%	93.6%	95.7%	86.0%	83.2%
2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00	89.7%	93.6%	95.7%	86.0%	83.3%
2026-10-19T15:14:03+00:00	89.7%	94.4%	95.7%	86.0%	83.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	89.7%	94.4%	95.7%	86.0%	83.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	89.7%	94.4%	95.7%	86.0%	83.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	89.7%	94.4%	95.5%	86.0%	83.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:44+00:00	89.7%	94.4%	95.5%	86.0%	83.3%
2026-10-19T19:00:24+00:00	89.7%	94.4%	95.5%	86.0%	83.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:34+00:00	88.1%	94.4%	95.5%	96.2%	68.9%
2026-10-19T20:30:43+00:00	88.1%	94.4%	95.5%	96.2%	68.9%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	88.1%	94.4%	95.5%	96.2%	68.9%
2026-10-19T22:01:06+00:00	88.1%	94.4%	95.5%	96.2%	68.9%
2026-10-19T22:46:22+00:00	88.1%	94.4%	95.5%	96.2%	68.9%
2026-10-19T23:31:32+00:00	88.1%	94.4%	94.7%	96.2%	68.9%
2026-10-20T00:17:12+00:00	88.1%	94.4%	94.7%	96.2%	68.9%
2026-10-20T01:02:41+00:00	88.1%	94.4%	94.7%	96.2%	68.9%
2026-10-20T01:47:52+00:00	91.2%	94.4%	94.7%	96.2%	68.9%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	91.2%	94.4%	94.7%	96.2%	68.9%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	91.2%	94.4%	94.7%	96.2%	68.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	96%	83.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	95%	80.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	94%	82.8°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	91%	80.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	69%	76.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261023-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 75°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗