KTUS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

95%

94%

91%

69%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 82.5¢Risks 82.55u

ICONNO 17.5¢Risks 17.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +17.45u · ICON −17.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	90.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	93.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	93.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	89.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	90.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	80.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	75.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	29.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	13.5%	—	—	79.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	25.1%	—	33.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	93.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	65.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	70.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	35.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	5.9%	—	—	60.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	28.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	7.7%	30.6%	—	—	46.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	50.0%	70.8%	4.9%	—	40.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	76.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	31.0%	62.3%	36.4%	—	65.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	44.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	40.2%	38.7%	66.3%	36.5%	—	69.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	65.2%	—	—	26.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	53.2%	77.0%	61.0%	—	53.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	76.9%	—	75.0%	—	—	67.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	67.8%	61.5%	91.0%	59.9%	—	55.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	84.3%	26.7%	83.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	74.5%	76.6%	64.6%	—	73.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	79.1%	70.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	56.4%	74.1%	54.6%	—	76.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	68.2%	57.5%	73.2%	—	—	81.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	65.2%	67.8%	95.4%	74.5%	24.7%	82.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	94.0%	—	—	87.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	96%	83.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	95%	80.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	94%	82.8°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	91%	80.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	69%	76.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261023-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 75°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗