KTUS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

90%

81%

81%

56%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 74.1¢Risks 74.05u

ICONNO 25.9¢Risks 25.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +25.95u · ICON −25.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:56:20+00:00	87.9%	80.6%	77.5%	30.2%	57.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:42+00:00	87.9%	80.6%	77.5%	30.2%	57.1%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	87.9%	80.6%	77.5%	30.2%	57.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:12+00:00	87.9%	80.6%	79.6%	30.2%	57.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:42+00:00	87.9%	80.6%	79.6%	30.2%	57.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:50+00:00	87.9%	80.6%	79.6%	30.2%	57.1%
2026-10-18T19:28:03+00:00	81.8%	80.6%	79.6%	61.5%	63.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:11+00:00	81.8%	80.6%	79.6%	61.5%	63.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:21+00:00	81.8%	80.6%	79.6%	61.5%	63.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	81.8%	80.6%	79.6%	61.5%	63.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	81.8%	80.6%	79.6%	61.5%	63.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00	81.8%	80.6%	78.9%	61.5%	63.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	81.8%	80.6%	78.9%	61.5%	63.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:12+00:00	81.8%	80.6%	78.9%	61.5%	63.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:41+00:00	91.8%	80.6%	78.9%	61.5%	63.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:50+00:00	91.8%	80.6%	78.9%	61.5%	63.4%
2026-10-19T03:00:01+00:00	91.8%	80.6%	78.9%	61.5%	63.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00	91.8%	80.6%	78.9%	61.5%	63.4%
2026-10-20T04:06:03+00:00	82.0%	88.6%	85.9%	91.6%	53.3%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	82.0%	88.6%	85.9%	91.6%	53.3%
2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00	82.0%	88.6%	85.3%	91.6%	53.3%
2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00	82.0%	88.6%	85.3%	91.6%	53.3%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	82.0%	88.6%	85.3%	91.6%	53.3%
2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00	81.4%	88.6%	85.3%	91.6%	56.0%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00	81.4%	88.6%	85.3%	91.6%	56.0%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	81.4%	88.6%	85.3%	91.6%	56.0%
2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00	81.4%	88.6%	85.3%	91.6%	56.0%
2026-10-20T10:54:35+00:00	81.4%	89.8%	81.4%	92.1%	56.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:50+00:00	81.4%	89.8%	81.4%	92.1%	56.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00	81.4%	89.8%	81.4%	92.1%	56.0%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	81.4%	89.8%	81.4%	92.1%	56.0%
2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00	81.4%	89.8%	81.4%	92.1%	56.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	92%	82.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	90%	83.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	81%	80.3°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	81%	79.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	77.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	56%	77.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261023-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 77°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗