KTUS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

90%

81%

81%

56%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 74.1¢Risks 74.05u

ICONNO 25.9¢Risks 25.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +25.95u · ICON −25.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	89.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	89.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	8.1%	—	—	70.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	87.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	53.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	24.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	2.9%	—	—	47.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	3.9%	19.8%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	83.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	36.2%	57.7%	2.2%	—	28.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	64.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	19.4%	47.8%	23.7%	—	50.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	26.4%	25.1%	51.5%	23.4%	—	55.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	50.0%	—	—	15.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	37.5%	63.3%	45.2%	—	37.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	60.5%	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	51.7%	45.0%	82.2%	43.4%	—	38.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	71.9%	14.7%	71.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	58.7%	61.3%	47.4%	—	57.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	64.1%	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	42.7%	38.2%	57.3%	36.4%	—	60.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	38.8%	55.7%	—	—	65.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	46.1%	49.0%	88.4%	56.8%	12.1%	67.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	49.0%	—	85.4%	—	—	74.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	92%	82.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	90%	83.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	81%	80.3°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	81%	79.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	77.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	56%	77.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261023-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 77°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗