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KTUS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≤ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
4%
EPS
3%
HRES
3%
AIFS
<1%
WN2
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

The models are within 4 percentage points. Under the proposed policy, no contract would match.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T07:34:08+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.4% · 2026-10-19T07:34:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T07:34:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00IFS HRES: 3.0% · 2026-10-19T07:34:08+00:00IFS HRES: 3.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00IFS HRES: 3.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00IFS HRES: 3.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS HRES: 3.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00ICON: 3.7% · 2026-10-19T07:34:08+00:00ICON: 3.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00ICON: 3.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00ICON: 3.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00ICON: 3.7% · 2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:0010-19 07:3410-19 09:0410-19 10:35
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:34:08+00:000.6%3.4%0.4%3.0%3.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:000.6%3.4%0.4%3.0%3.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:000.6%3.4%0.4%3.0%3.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:000.6%3.4%0.4%3.0%3.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:000.6%3.4%0.4%3.0%3.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast16%75.0°F4.5°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
National Blend15%74.0°F3.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON4%79.2°F4.9°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble3%81.9°F6.2°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES3%79.9°F5.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single<1%82.1°F4.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 2<1%81.3°F4.1°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 70°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261023-TMAX-LE70
Opened Oct 19 · 07:34 UTC

Original listing: Tucson stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 70°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗