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KTUS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≤ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
4%
EPS
3%
HRES
3%
AIFS
<1%
WN2
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

The models are within 4 percentage points. Under the proposed policy, no contract would match.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 68.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.4% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 81.1% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 80.0% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 74.8% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 92.1% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 61.5% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.1% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 73.5% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.0% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.6% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.4% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.4% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 69.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 74.5% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 74.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 66.3% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 53.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 62.7% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 82.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 81.5% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 68.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 86.7% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 80.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 72.7% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 64.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 62.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.4% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.3% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.5% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.7% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 77.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 24.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 40.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 31.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 18.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 12.9% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 40.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.3% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 13.9% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 12.7% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.5% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 48.9% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 69.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 43.5% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.4% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 39.3% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 82.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 46.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 43.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.5% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.8% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 26.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.3% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.5% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.8% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.9% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 82.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 35.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 33.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 14.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 13.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 10.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 14.9% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 38.5% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 48.4% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.4% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.9% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.2% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.1% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 28.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 43.8% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.4% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.7% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.6% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-08 12:0010-14 12:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0068.0%————48.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0020.4%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:008.9%————3.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:002.5%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:008.7%————1.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:001.6%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0081.1%————2.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0080.0%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0074.8%————3.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0092.1%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0061.5%————3.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0043.1%—————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0073.5%————8.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0034.0%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0023.6%————6.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0013.4%—————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0037.9%————8.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0041.4%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0069.5%————10.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0074.5%—————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0074.4%————10.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0066.3%—48.9%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0050.0%—69.7%——7.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0053.0%—43.5%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0047.0%————1.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0062.7%—15.4%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0082.0%————12.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0081.5%—39.3%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0068.2%—82.0%——18.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0086.7%—46.0%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0080.6%77.2%43.3%——28.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0072.7%—2.2%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0064.4%24.1%10.5%82.9%—31.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0062.0%—7.5%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0025.4%40.6%14.8%35.0%—13.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0035.4%—26.8%———
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0030.3%31.6%11.8%33.7%—10.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0019.5%—12.0%——43.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0010.0%18.9%6.2%14.0%—18.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:006.0%—6.8%——10.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:009.7%12.9%1.5%13.8%—16.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:003.1%40.7%3.3%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:005.2%6.2%5.4%10.5%—6.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0010.3%4.3%7.5%———
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0011.5%13.9%5.8%14.9%—5.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:007.7%12.7%5.9%——3.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:008.6%7.5%0.4%5.1%38.5%2.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:007.0%—0.5%——1.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast16%75.0°F4.5°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
National Blend15%74.0°F3.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON4%79.2°F4.9°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble3%81.9°F6.2°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES3%79.9°F5.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single<1%82.1°F4.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 2<1%81.3°F4.1°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 70°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261023-TMAX-LE70
Opened Oct 19 · 07:34 UTC

Original listing: Tucson stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 70°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗