WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KTUS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
93%
AIFS
86%
HRES
68%
EPS
59%
ICON
18%
Consensus
73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 55.2¢Risks 55.20u
VS
ICONNO 44.8¢Risks 44.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +44.80u · ICON −44.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 85.6% · 2026-10-17T07:45:32+00:00AIFS Single: 85.6% · 2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00AIFS Single: 85.6% · 2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00AIFS Single: 85.6% · 2026-10-17T10:01:52+00:00AIFS Single: 85.6% · 2026-10-17T10:46:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.6% · 2026-10-17T07:45:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.6% · 2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.6% · 2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.6% · 2026-10-17T10:01:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.6% · 2026-10-17T10:46:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.9% · 2026-10-17T07:45:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.9% · 2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.9% · 2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.9% · 2026-10-17T10:01:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.9% · 2026-10-17T10:46:57+00:00IFS HRES: 67.9% · 2026-10-17T07:45:32+00:00IFS HRES: 67.9% · 2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00IFS HRES: 67.9% · 2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00IFS HRES: 67.9% · 2026-10-17T10:01:52+00:00IFS HRES: 67.9% · 2026-10-17T10:46:57+00:00ICON: 17.5% · 2026-10-17T07:45:32+00:00ICON: 17.5% · 2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00ICON: 17.5% · 2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00ICON: 17.5% · 2026-10-17T10:01:52+00:00ICON: 17.5% · 2026-10-17T10:46:57+00:0010-17 07:4510-17 09:1610-17 10:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T10:46:57+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T07:45:32+00:0085.6%58.6%92.9%67.9%17.5%
2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:0085.6%58.6%92.9%67.9%17.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:0085.6%58.6%92.9%67.9%17.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:52+00:0085.6%58.6%92.9%67.9%17.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:57+00:0085.6%58.6%92.9%67.9%17.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 293%82.5°F5.5°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
AIFS Single86%80.6°F5.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES68%77.5°F6.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble59%75.7°F5.5°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
National Blend54%75.0°F5.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
ICON18%65.2°F9.9°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261024-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 17 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 75°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗