KTUS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

86%

68%

59%

18%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 55.2¢Risks 55.20u

ICONNO 44.8¢Risks 44.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +44.80u · ICON −44.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	92.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	89.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	88.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	88.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	88.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	78.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	10.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	—	—	—	88.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	54.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	74.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	95.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	59.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	46.8%	—	—	73.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	63.9%	0.9%	48.0%	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	65.7%	75.4%	78.1%	0.8%	—	78.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	79.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	59.4%	94.5%	83.9%	—	86.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	71.9%	—	93.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	50.8%	34.4%	87.5%	82.6%	—	79.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	—	96.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	64.8%	95.2%	35.2%	—	73.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	82.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	36.1%	70.7%	81.0%	59.1%	—	56.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	39.8%	13.7%	85.3%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	55.2%	57.8%	84.9%	31.4%	66.2%	62.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	72.1%	—	—	75.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	93%	82.5°F	5.5°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	80.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	68%	77.5°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	59%	75.7°F	5.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	75.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	18%	65.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261024-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 17 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 75°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗