KTUS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

65%

61%

50%

49%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 59.4¢Risks 59.40u

HRESNO 40.6¢Risks 40.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +40.60u · HRES −40.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T15:14:03+00:00	54.8%	69.5%	75.2%	45.9%	60.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	54.8%	69.5%	75.2%	45.9%	60.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	54.8%	69.5%	75.2%	45.9%	60.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	54.8%	69.5%	73.7%	45.9%	60.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:44+00:00	54.8%	69.5%	73.7%	45.9%	60.3%
2026-10-19T19:00:24+00:00	54.8%	69.5%	73.7%	45.9%	60.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:34+00:00	46.0%	69.5%	73.7%	49.3%	64.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:43+00:00	46.0%	69.5%	73.7%	49.3%	64.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	46.0%	69.5%	73.7%	49.3%	64.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:06+00:00	46.0%	69.5%	73.7%	49.3%	64.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:22+00:00	46.0%	69.5%	73.7%	49.3%	64.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:32+00:00	46.0%	69.5%	60.6%	49.3%	64.7%
2026-10-20T00:17:12+00:00	46.0%	69.5%	60.6%	49.3%	64.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:41+00:00	46.0%	69.5%	60.6%	49.3%	64.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:52+00:00	50.0%	69.5%	60.6%	49.3%	64.7%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	50.0%	69.5%	60.6%	49.3%	64.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	50.0%	69.5%	60.6%	49.3%	64.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	70%	79.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	65%	79.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	61%	78.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	78.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	78.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	50%	77.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	77.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261024-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 19 · 15:14 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 78°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗