KTUS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

65%

61%

50%

49%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 59.4¢Risks 59.40u

HRESNO 40.6¢Risks 40.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +40.60u · HRES −40.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	65.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	77.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	—	—	—	58.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	89.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	40.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	27.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	28.4%	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	64.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	0.2%	28.8%	—	—	52.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	65.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	45.1%	56.3%	59.7%	0.1%	—	59.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	61.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	55.1%	37.8%	85.2%	67.0%	—	71.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	83.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	16.4%	71.7%	64.2%	—	59.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	88.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	41.3%	85.5%	16.4%	—	50.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	62.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	46.7%	59.9%	34.5%	—	32.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	4.1%	65.8%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	29.9%	32.2%	64.6%	12.7%	40.5%	36.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	46.4%	—	—	50.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	70%	79.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	65%	79.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	61%	78.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	78.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	78.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	50%	77.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	77.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261024-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 19 · 15:14 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 78°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗