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KTUS / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
5%
AIFS
5%
HRES
4%
EPS
3%
WN2
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

The models are within 4 percentage points. Under the proposed policy, no contract would match.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.6% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.7% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.6% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.3% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.9% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 16.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.8% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.2% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 10.7% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.5% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.4% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.9% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.6% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-10 12:0010-15 12:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:002.6%————16.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:001.7%—————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:005.9%————22.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0030.6%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:000.1%————18.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:001.9%—————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.1%————14.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:003.9%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:000.9%————8.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:001.4%—————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:000.1%————8.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0013.1%—————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:001.5%————10.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:006.9%—————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:004.1%————14.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:004.2%—————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:001.0%————10.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:002.1%—0.9%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.5%————9.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.4%—————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:001.5%————5.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:003.3%—1.3%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:005.9%—1.0%——13.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:005.7%—————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:004.2%————12.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:008.6%—18.0%———
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:005.7%—13.0%——18.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:005.2%—10.9%———
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:005.6%0.0%3.9%——22.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:004.2%—16.7%———
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:003.8%0.6%3.3%0.0%—18.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:001.8%—6.8%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:001.4%2.5%14.4%3.3%—11.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:001.0%—5.0%———
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.7%4.1%1.6%10.7%—5.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.1%—9.2%———
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:000.7%0.5%2.6%0.3%0.3%2.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.5%—0.9%——1.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast8%82.0°F5.2°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
ICON5%79.4°F6.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single5%81.3°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES4%79.1°F5.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble3%80.3°F4.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend3%81.0°F4.4°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 21%80.4°F4.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261025-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 18 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Tucson · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗