KTUS / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

79%

76%

75%

69%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 76.5¢Risks 38.25u

AIFSNO 23.5¢Risks 11.75u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +11.75u · AIFS −11.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:34:10+00:00	75.7%	90.3%	83.3%	83.6%	6.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	75.7%	90.3%	83.3%	83.6%	6.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	75.7%	90.3%	83.3%	83.6%	6.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	75.7%	90.3%	83.3%	83.6%	6.2%
2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00	75.7%	90.3%	83.3%	83.6%	6.2%
2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00	75.7%	75.0%	66.7%	83.6%	6.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00	75.7%	75.0%	66.7%	83.6%	6.2%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	75.7%	75.0%	66.7%	83.6%	6.2%
2026-10-19T13:37:09+00:00	74.0%	75.0%	66.7%	83.6%	6.2%
2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00	74.0%	75.0%	66.7%	83.6%	6.2%
2026-10-19T15:14:04+00:00	74.0%	76.3%	66.7%	83.6%	6.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	74.0%	76.3%	66.7%	83.6%	6.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	74.0%	76.3%	66.7%	83.6%	6.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	74.0%	76.3%	83.2%	83.6%	6.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:44+00:00	74.0%	76.3%	83.2%	83.6%	6.2%
2026-10-19T19:00:24+00:00	74.0%	76.3%	83.2%	83.6%	6.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:34+00:00	83.5%	76.3%	83.2%	78.6%	74.8%
2026-10-19T20:30:43+00:00	83.5%	76.3%	83.2%	78.6%	74.8%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	83.5%	76.3%	83.2%	78.6%	74.8%
2026-10-19T22:01:06+00:00	83.5%	76.3%	83.2%	78.6%	74.8%
2026-10-19T22:46:22+00:00	83.5%	76.3%	83.2%	78.6%	74.8%
2026-10-19T23:31:32+00:00	83.5%	76.1%	83.7%	78.6%	74.8%
2026-10-20T00:17:12+00:00	83.5%	76.1%	83.7%	78.6%	74.8%
2026-10-20T01:02:41+00:00	83.5%	76.1%	83.7%	78.6%	74.8%
2026-10-20T01:47:52+00:00	69.3%	76.1%	83.7%	78.6%	74.8%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	69.3%	76.1%	83.7%	78.6%	74.8%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	69.3%	76.1%	83.7%	78.6%	74.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	84%	85.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	79%	85.6°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	83.9°F	4.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	75%	87.2°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	69%	83.4°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	81.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261026-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 19 · 07:34 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 81°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗