KTUS / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

79%

76%

75%

69%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 76.5¢Risks 38.25u

AIFSNO 23.5¢Risks 11.75u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +11.75u · AIFS −11.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	3.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	44.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	—	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	73.4%	—	—	64.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	37.6%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	21.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	5.1%	—	—	71.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	49.3%	0.0%	58.7%	—	—	70.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	60.4%	64.4%	41.6%	0.1%	—	74.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	68.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	53.6%	46.4%	91.8%	56.6%	17.0%	64.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	48.5%	—	60.4%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	84%	85.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	79%	85.6°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	83.9°F	4.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	75%	87.2°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	69%	83.4°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	81.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261026-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 19 · 07:34 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 81°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗