KTUS / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

17%

16%

14%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 9.0¢Risks 4.52u

EPSNO 91.0¢Risks 45.48u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +45.48u · EPS −45.48u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:34:11+00:00	14.8%	11.5%	19.6%	28.3%	0.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	14.8%	11.5%	19.6%	28.3%	0.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	14.8%	11.5%	19.6%	28.3%	0.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	14.8%	11.5%	19.6%	28.3%	0.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00	14.8%	11.5%	19.6%	28.3%	0.6%
2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00	14.8%	7.6%	6.3%	28.3%	0.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00	14.8%	7.6%	6.3%	28.3%	0.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	14.8%	7.6%	6.3%	28.3%	0.6%
2026-10-19T13:37:09+00:00	13.7%	7.6%	6.3%	28.3%	0.6%
2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00	13.6%	7.6%	6.3%	28.3%	0.6%
2026-10-19T15:14:04+00:00	13.6%	8.2%	6.3%	28.3%	0.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	13.6%	8.2%	6.3%	28.3%	0.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	13.6%	8.2%	6.3%	28.3%	0.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	13.6%	8.2%	15.9%	28.3%	0.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:44+00:00	13.6%	8.2%	15.9%	28.3%	0.6%
2026-10-19T19:00:24+00:00	13.6%	8.2%	15.9%	28.3%	0.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:34+00:00	22.2%	8.2%	15.9%	22.3%	37.1%
2026-10-19T20:30:43+00:00	22.2%	8.2%	15.9%	22.3%	37.1%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	22.2%	8.2%	15.9%	22.3%	37.1%
2026-10-19T22:01:06+00:00	22.2%	8.2%	15.9%	22.3%	37.1%
2026-10-19T22:46:22+00:00	22.2%	8.2%	15.9%	22.3%	37.1%
2026-10-19T23:31:32+00:00	22.2%	8.5%	16.3%	22.3%	37.1%
2026-10-20T00:17:12+00:00	22.2%	8.5%	16.3%	22.3%	37.1%
2026-10-20T01:02:41+00:00	22.2%	8.5%	16.3%	22.3%	37.1%
2026-10-20T01:47:52+00:00	10.8%	8.5%	16.3%	22.3%	37.1%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	10.8%	8.5%	16.3%	22.3%	37.1%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	10.8%	8.5%	16.3%	22.3%	37.1%
2026-10-20T04:06:03+00:00	10.8%	8.5%	16.3%	22.3%	37.1%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	10.8%	8.5%	16.3%	22.3%	37.1%
2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00	10.8%	8.5%	12.0%	22.3%	37.1%
2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00	10.8%	8.5%	12.0%	22.3%	37.1%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	10.8%	8.5%	12.0%	22.3%	37.1%
2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00	15.9%	8.5%	12.0%	22.3%	16.7%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00	15.9%	8.5%	12.0%	22.3%	16.7%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	15.9%	8.5%	12.0%	22.3%	16.7%
2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00	15.9%	8.5%	12.0%	22.3%	16.7%
2026-10-20T10:54:35+00:00	15.9%	1.5%	5.7%	14.4%	16.7%
2026-10-20T11:39:50+00:00	15.9%	1.5%	5.7%	14.4%	16.7%
2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00	15.9%	1.5%	5.7%	14.4%	16.7%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	15.9%	1.5%	5.7%	14.4%	16.7%
2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00	15.8%	1.5%	5.7%	14.4%	16.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	17%	83.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	85.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	83.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	83.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	4%	80.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	81.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	80.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261026-TMAX-GE91
Opened Oct 19 · 07:34 UTC

Original listing: Tucson runs hot-for-here: 91°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗