KTUS / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

17%

16%

14%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 9.0¢Risks 4.52u

EPSNO 91.0¢Risks 45.48u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +45.48u · EPS −45.48u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	18.5%	—	—	12.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	2.9%	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	0.1%	—	—	14.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	0.0%	7.0%	—	—	12.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	8.2%	2.4%	0.0%	—	13.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	2.7%	33.0%	4.8%	0.3%	7.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	5.4%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	17%	83.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	85.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	83.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	83.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	4%	80.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	81.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	80.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261026-TMAX-GE91
Opened Oct 19 · 07:34 UTC

Original listing: Tucson runs hot-for-here: 91°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗