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KTUS / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
87%
WN2
85%
HRES
83%
EPS
74%
ICON
8%
Consensus
72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 47.7¢Risks 47.70u
VS
ICONNO 52.3¢Risks 52.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +52.30u · ICON −52.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.7% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.9% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.5% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.5% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 63.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 72.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 56.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 65.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 62.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 64.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 66.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 71.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 40.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 53.6% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.9% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 58.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 72.9% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 65.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 83.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 41.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 53.4% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 45.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 33.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 39.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 35.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 38.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 43.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 39.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 38.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 40.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 49.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 47.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 50.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 62.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 64.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 76.4% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 75.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 12:0010-16 12:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.1%———1.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:007.7%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0010.8%———33.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:000.8%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:006.8%———39.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0047.9%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:001.4%———35.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0041.5%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:003.1%———38.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0016.2%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0027.9%———43.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:002.1%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0018.9%———39.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0014.0%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:004.9%———38.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:006.6%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0024.8%———40.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0018.5%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0031.0%———49.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0035.8%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0030.4%———47.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0041.4%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0043.6%—40.1%—50.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0050.0%—53.6%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0063.1%———62.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0072.7%—8.9%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0056.3%—58.7%—64.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0065.0%—72.9%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0062.2%—65.2%—76.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0064.3%—83.3%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0066.4%0.1%41.3%45.3%75.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0071.0%—53.4%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single87%87.0°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 285%85.8°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES83%86.6°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble74%83.4°F4.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend56%81.0°F3.1°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON8%66.6°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261027-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 81°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗