KABQ / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

88%

67%

54%

20%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 57.8¢Risks 57.75u

WN2NO 42.2¢Risks 42.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +42.25u · WN2 −42.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	86.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	56.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	73.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	56.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	92.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	13.8%	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	63.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	79.8%	—	—	73.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	24.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	74.8%	—	—	73.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	21.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	60.0%	—	—	61.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	71.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	71.4%	41.6%	16.6%	—	44.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	47.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	60.1%	76.8%	—	44.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	0.6%	53.8%	11.0%	—	29.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	65.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.1%	50.8%	67.7%	—	21.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	26.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	5.3%	61.5%	69.2%	—	31.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	4.7%	60.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	19.6%	2.3%	41.3%	34.6%	—	19.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	0.3%	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	40.9%	49.1%	78.4%	—	15.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	54.7%	52.8%	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	61.5%	63.4%	75.3%	—	46.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	21.1%	47.0%	72.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	60.2%	73.2%	70.6%	—	49.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	19.8%	75.5%	73.8%	—	—	40.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	21.3%	55.5%	83.1%	52.2%	0.0%	50.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	31.5%	70.4%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.7%	38.5%	71.0%	47.7%	—	40.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	69.6%	69.6%	50.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	62.3%	72.4%	55.0%	47.5%	47.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	51.3%	68.7%	59.0%	—	51.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	47.3%	63.2%	46.0%	42.0%	48.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	73.5%	54.2%	48.6%	—	50.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	69.5%	57.2%	51.4%	45.7%	51.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	63.3%	48.5%	47.0%	—	47.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	68.3%	54.7%	37.6%	53.2%	37.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	75.9%	58.2%	50.0%	—	26.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	95%	66.8°F	3.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0023
IFS HRES	88%	66.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0139
ICON	67%	63.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.1116
NWS forecast	55%	62.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2016
AIFS Single	54%	61.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.2144
National Blend	47%	61.0°F	6.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.2841
WeatherNext 2	20%	58.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.6352

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261017-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 14 · 03:00 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 62°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗