KABQ / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

88%

67%

54%

20%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 57.8¢Risks 57.75u

WN2NO 42.2¢Risks 42.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +42.25u · WN2 −42.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T03:00:02+00:00	34.0%	70.4%	20.2%	25.5%	55.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:40+00:00	34.0%	70.4%	20.2%	25.5%	55.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	34.0%	70.4%	20.2%	25.5%	55.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	34.0%	70.4%	20.2%	25.5%	55.0%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	34.0%	70.4%	20.2%	25.5%	55.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	34.0%	70.4%	20.2%	25.5%	55.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	52.8%	70.4%	20.2%	25.5%	68.4%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	52.8%	70.4%	20.2%	25.5%	68.4%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	52.8%	70.4%	20.2%	25.5%	68.4%
2026-10-14T09:46:55+00:00	52.8%	70.4%	20.2%	25.5%	68.4%
2026-10-14T10:34:26+00:00	52.8%	70.4%	20.2%	88.2%	68.4%
2026-10-14T11:21:00+00:00	52.8%	95.9%	24.7%	88.2%	68.4%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	52.8%	95.9%	24.7%	88.2%	68.4%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	52.8%	95.9%	24.7%	88.2%	68.4%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	53.7%	95.9%	24.7%	88.2%	68.4%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	53.7%	95.8%	24.7%	88.2%	68.4%
2026-10-14T15:12:42+00:00	53.7%	95.6%	24.7%	88.2%	68.4%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	53.7%	95.6%	24.7%	88.2%	68.4%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	53.7%	95.6%	24.7%	88.2%	68.4%
2026-10-14T17:28:14+00:00	53.7%	95.6%	30.7%	88.2%	68.4%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	53.7%	95.6%	30.7%	88.2%	68.4%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	53.7%	95.6%	30.7%	88.2%	68.4%
2026-10-14T19:43:39+00:00	48.1%	95.6%	30.7%	88.2%	66.6%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	48.1%	95.6%	30.7%	88.2%	66.6%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	48.1%	95.6%	30.7%	88.2%	66.6%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	48.1%	95.6%	30.7%	88.2%	66.6%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	48.1%	95.6%	30.7%	88.2%	66.6%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	48.1%	95.2%	20.3%	88.2%	66.6%
2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00	48.1%	95.2%	20.3%	88.2%	66.6%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	48.1%	95.2%	20.3%	88.2%	66.6%
2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00	53.7%	95.2%	20.3%	88.2%	66.6%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	53.7%	95.2%	20.3%	88.2%	66.6%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	53.7%	95.2%	20.3%	88.2%	66.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	95%	66.8°F	3.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0023
IFS HRES	88%	66.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0139
ICON	67%	63.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.1116
NWS forecast	55%	62.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2016
AIFS Single	54%	61.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.2144
National Blend	47%	61.0°F	6.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.2841
WeatherNext 2	20%	58.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.6352

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261017-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 14 · 03:00 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 62°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗