KABQ / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 67°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

46%

44%

44%

10%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 28.7¢Risks 28.65u

WN2NO 71.4¢Risks 71.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +71.35u · WN2 −71.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	55.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	10.3%	—	—	61.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	64.1%	—	—	45.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	47.4%	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	47.3%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	33.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	17.5%	53.5%	1.6%	—	26.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	48.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	33.7%	58.7%	74.0%	—	21.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	29.6%	43.9%	56.8%	77.2%	—	30.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	35.2%	0.3%	57.1%	—	21.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	20.7%	37.7%	62.3%	—	19.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	2.2%	48.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	17.8%	14.1%	23.4%	45.6%	—	13.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	23.5%	18.4%	31.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	24.4%	48.2%	20.3%	—	20.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	8.1%	58.5%	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	5.9%	6.5%	28.7%	—	19.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	9.6%	15.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	17.0%	21.2%	1.2%	60.2%	—	23.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	13.8%	41.6%	31.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	39.2%	29.2%	52.2%	—	14.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	15.4%	31.5%	2.1%	0.0%	—	20.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	11.0%	43.0%	46.5%	—	16.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	34.7%	21.6%	60.7%	—	14.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	30.9%	28.7%	63.4%	38.9%	26.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	30.2%	31.4%	56.4%	—	19.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	38.1%	42.0%	61.9%	34.3%	21.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	41.7%	37.7%	72.4%	—	22.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	40.0%	50.0%	72.0%	45.7%	19.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	24.8%	36.6%	59.0%	—	12.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	46.8%	50.0%	82.9%	59.4%	5.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	59.8%	40.2%	56.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	54%	67.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2153
ICON	47%	65.7°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.2830
IFS Ensemble	46%	66.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.2862
IFS HRES	44%	65.6°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.3091
AIFS Single	44%	65.6°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.3181
WeatherNext 2	10%	60.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.8010

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261018-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 67°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗