KABQ / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 67°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

46%

44%

44%

10%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 28.7¢Risks 28.65u

WN2NO 71.4¢Risks 71.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +71.35u · WN2 −71.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:32:34+00:00	44.3%	61.9%	33.2%	54.4%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00	44.3%	61.9%	33.2%	54.4%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00	44.3%	61.9%	33.2%	54.4%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00	44.3%	61.9%	33.2%	54.4%	—
2026-10-11T10:34:15+00:00	44.3%	61.9%	33.2%	54.4%	—
2026-10-11T11:20:12+00:00	44.3%	44.9%	20.3%	54.4%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00	44.3%	44.9%	20.3%	54.4%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00	44.3%	44.9%	20.3%	54.4%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:55+00:00	50.7%	44.9%	20.3%	54.4%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00	50.7%	44.9%	20.3%	54.4%	—
2026-10-11T15:12:05+00:00	50.7%	46.5%	20.3%	54.4%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00	50.7%	46.5%	20.3%	54.4%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00	50.7%	46.5%	20.3%	54.4%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:00	50.7%	46.5%	22.1%	54.4%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:00	50.7%	46.5%	22.1%	54.4%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00	50.7%	46.5%	22.1%	54.4%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:34+00:00	30.8%	46.5%	22.1%	44.4%	46.8%
2026-10-11T20:28:41+00:00	30.8%	46.5%	22.1%	44.4%	46.8%
2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00	30.8%	46.5%	22.1%	44.4%	46.8%
2026-10-11T21:59:02+00:00	30.8%	46.5%	22.1%	44.4%	46.8%
2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00	30.8%	46.5%	22.1%	44.4%	46.8%
2026-10-11T23:29:37+00:00	30.8%	46.5%	10.5%	44.4%	46.8%
2026-10-12T00:14:46+00:00	30.8%	46.5%	10.5%	44.4%	46.8%
2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:00	30.8%	46.5%	10.5%	44.4%	46.8%
2026-10-12T01:45:24+00:00	43.6%	46.5%	10.5%	44.4%	46.8%
2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00	43.6%	46.5%	10.5%	44.4%	46.8%
2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00	43.6%	46.5%	10.5%	44.4%	46.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	54%	67.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2153
ICON	47%	65.7°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.2830
IFS Ensemble	46%	66.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.2862
IFS HRES	44%	65.6°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.3091
AIFS Single	44%	65.6°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.3181
WeatherNext 2	10%	60.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.8010

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261018-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 67°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗