KABQ / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Oct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

65%

42%

26%

22%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 52.6¢Risks 52.60u

WN2NO 47.4¢Risks 47.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +47.40u · WN2 −47.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	52.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	2.4%	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	32.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	39.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	14.8%	—	—	27.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	0.0%	50.7%	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	43.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	18.0%	44.4%	60.4%	1.2%	—	34.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	21.5%	42.7%	24.9%	52.9%	—	34.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	30.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	41.7%	35.8%	17.9%	—	35.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	46.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	37.5%	39.7%	47.6%	—	29.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	59.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	45.0%	52.5%	32.2%	—	34.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	3.9%	56.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	42.2%	43.0%	46.5%	—	29.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	44.6%	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	28.9%	19.6%	81.6%	—	30.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	58.5%	11.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	58.7%	4.6%	72.9%	—	30.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	50.0%	29.1%	—	—	31.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	53.1%	25.1%	15.7%	—	29.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	47.9%	45.8%	—	—	29.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	17.6%	48.9%	57.6%	0.0%	25.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	56.7%	36.7%	0.0%	—	22.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	37.4%	55.8%	62.6%	0.0%	19.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	54.8%	51.2%	76.6%	—	19.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	25.6%	62.3%	78.3%	—	19.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	60.2%	62.7%	85.7%	—	14.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	59.3%	58.0%	76.0%	71.6%	11.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	51.4%	61.0%	32.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	30.5%	64.2%	14.6%	73.2%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	84%	76.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
ICON	65%	74.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	71.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	42%	69.3°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	67.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	22%	66.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗