KABQ / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Oct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

65%

42%

26%

22%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 52.6¢Risks 52.60u

WN2NO 47.4¢Risks 47.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +47.40u · WN2 −47.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:57+00:00	32.7%	36.6%	24.3%	35.3%	5.3%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00	32.7%	36.6%	24.3%	35.3%	5.3%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00	32.7%	36.6%	24.3%	35.3%	5.3%
2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00	32.7%	36.6%	24.3%	35.3%	5.3%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00	32.7%	36.6%	24.3%	35.3%	5.3%
2026-10-12T11:35:39+00:00	32.7%	36.6%	19.8%	35.3%	5.3%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	32.7%	24.2%	19.8%	35.3%	5.3%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	32.7%	24.2%	19.8%	35.3%	5.3%
2026-10-12T13:51:09+00:00	41.5%	24.2%	19.8%	35.3%	5.3%
2026-10-12T14:41:19+00:00	41.5%	24.2%	19.9%	35.3%	5.4%
2026-10-12T15:27:43+00:00	41.5%	24.2%	19.9%	35.3%	5.4%
2026-10-12T16:12:58+00:00	41.5%	25.8%	19.9%	35.3%	5.4%
2026-10-12T16:58:07+00:00	41.5%	25.8%	21.6%	35.3%	5.4%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00	41.5%	25.8%	21.6%	35.3%	5.4%
2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00	41.5%	25.8%	21.6%	35.3%	5.4%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	41.5%	25.8%	21.6%	35.3%	5.4%
2026-10-12T19:58:35+00:00	41.5%	25.8%	21.6%	83.6%	64.6%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	41.5%	25.8%	21.6%	83.6%	64.6%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	41.5%	25.8%	21.6%	83.6%	64.6%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00	41.5%	25.8%	21.6%	83.6%	64.6%
2026-10-12T22:59:13+00:00	41.5%	25.8%	21.6%	83.6%	64.6%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	41.5%	25.8%	21.6%	83.6%	64.6%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00	41.5%	25.8%	21.6%	83.6%	64.6%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	41.5%	25.8%	21.6%	83.6%	64.6%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	41.5%	25.8%	21.6%	83.6%	64.6%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	41.5%	25.8%	21.6%	83.6%	64.6%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	41.5%	25.8%	21.6%	83.6%	64.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	84%	76.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
ICON	65%	74.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	71.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	42%	69.3°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	67.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	22%	66.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗