KABQ / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 13 · 10:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

64%

39%

26%

16%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 49.0¢Risks 49.00u

ICONNO 51.0¢Risks 51.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +51.00u · ICON −51.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	44.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	—	—	—	44.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	—	—	—	45.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	65.9%	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	32.4%	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	55.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	16.3%	0.8%	52.0%	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	53.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	59.1%	55.6%	0.5%	—	40.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	63.6%	31.7%	76.8%	—	44.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	72.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	53.8%	69.1%	31.6%	—	48.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	54.8%	69.8%	67.7%	—	42.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	53.3%	50.8%	79.3%	—	42.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	6.7%	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	69.3%	47.4%	73.1%	—	40.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	60.7%	62.4%	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	50.0%	65.3%	71.0%	—	40.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	60.3%	67.4%	—	—	48.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	65.2%	61.5%	86.9%	—	51.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	71.8%	74.3%	—	—	46.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	65.1%	70.6%	71.5%	0.0%	42.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.2%	61.5%	67.4%	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	74.5%	65.9%	84.5%	—	32.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	59.0%	76.9%	0.0%	—	25.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	55.8%	77.6%	74.0%	0.0%	19.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	52.4%	75.6%	73.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	40.1%	72.4%	65.8%	34.2%	19.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	38.5%	57.7%	73.1%	—	15.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	40.7%	54.0%	66.9%	68.1%	11.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	43.1%	74.7%	72.4%	—	13.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	42.8%	79.8%	89.2%	66.9%	16.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	67.5%	85.6%	—	12.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	82%	76.2°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	64%	71.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	71.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	39%	68.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	26%	67.0°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
ICON	16%	60.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗