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KABQ / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 13 · 10:19 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
82%
EPS
64%
AIFS
39%
WN2
26%
ICON
16%
Consensus
50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 49.0¢Risks 49.00u
VS
ICONNO 51.0¢Risks 51.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +51.00u · ICON −51.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 38.8% · 2026-10-13T08:04:12+00:00AIFS Single: 38.8% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00AIFS Single: 38.8% · 2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00AIFS Single: 38.8% · 2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.1% · 2026-10-13T08:04:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.1% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.1% · 2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.1% · 2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.6% · 2026-10-13T08:04:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.6% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.6% · 2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.6% · 2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:00IFS HRES: 81.6% · 2026-10-13T08:04:12+00:00IFS HRES: 81.6% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00IFS HRES: 81.6% · 2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00IFS HRES: 81.6% · 2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:00ICON: 16.4% · 2026-10-13T08:04:12+00:00ICON: 16.4% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00ICON: 16.4% · 2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00ICON: 16.4% · 2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:0010-13 08:0410-13 09:3410-13 10:19
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-13T08:04:12+00:0038.8%64.1%25.6%81.6%16.4%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:0038.8%64.1%25.6%81.6%16.4%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:0038.8%64.1%25.6%81.6%16.4%
2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:0038.8%64.1%25.6%81.6%16.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES82%76.2°F6.3°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble64%71.8°F3.6°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
National Blend55%71.0°F4.4°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
AIFS Single39%68.9°F5.6°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 226%67.0°F5.3°F2026-10-12 18:00Pending
ICON16%60.8°F9.9°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗