KABQ / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST10%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

27%

20%

<1%

Consensus

10%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 13.5¢Risks 13.50u

WN2NO 86.5¢Risks 86.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +86.50u · WN2 −86.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	44.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	41.3%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	13.4%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	29.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	0.1%	26.5%	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	27.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	31.7%	28.6%	0.1%	—	17.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	35.0%	11.3%	50.0%	—	19.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	25.1%	39.4%	10.7%	—	21.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	24.8%	39.0%	36.7%	—	16.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	22.5%	20.7%	49.2%	—	15.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.9%	28.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	35.4%	17.2%	39.6%	—	13.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	26.4%	27.9%	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	17.8%	29.7%	35.6%	—	11.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	24.6%	30.9%	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	27.9%	24.7%	55.8%	—	17.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	33.5%	36.3%	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	25.9%	31.2%	32.1%	0.0%	11.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	22.0%	27.1%	—	—	9.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	33.1%	24.7%	46.7%	—	5.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	18.3%	34.6%	0.0%	—	3.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	15.3%	34.1%	30.0%	0.0%	2.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	12.6%	30.4%	28.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	6.7%	25.6%	19.9%	4.9%	1.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	5.6%	13.5%	24.8%	—	1.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	5.7%	10.7%	18.2%	19.1%	0.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	5.8%	23.2%	21.1%	—	0.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	5.1%	26.8%	41.4%	15.4%	0.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	14.4%	32.5%	—	0.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	72.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	71.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	6%	68.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	5%	68.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	66.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗