KABQ / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST10%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

27%

20%

<1%

Consensus

10%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 13.5¢Risks 13.50u

WN2NO 86.5¢Risks 86.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +86.50u · WN2 −86.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:02:31+00:00	7.7%	27.2%	1.9%	71.3%	50.6%
2026-10-15T04:48:06+00:00	7.7%	27.2%	1.9%	71.3%	50.6%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	7.7%	27.2%	1.9%	71.3%	50.6%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	7.7%	27.2%	1.9%	71.3%	50.6%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	7.7%	27.2%	1.9%	71.3%	50.6%
2026-10-15T07:50:20+00:00	4.6%	27.2%	1.9%	54.8%	44.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	4.6%	27.2%	1.9%	54.8%	44.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	4.6%	27.2%	1.9%	54.8%	44.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:42+00:00	4.6%	27.2%	1.9%	54.8%	44.6%
2026-10-15T10:53:44+00:00	4.6%	27.2%	0.4%	54.8%	44.6%
2026-10-15T11:39:34+00:00	4.6%	27.2%	0.4%	54.8%	44.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	4.6%	46.7%	0.4%	54.8%	44.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:35+00:00	4.6%	46.7%	0.4%	54.8%	44.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	6.3%	46.7%	0.4%	54.8%	45.3%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	6.3%	46.7%	0.4%	54.8%	45.3%
2026-10-15T15:34:36+00:00	6.3%	46.6%	0.4%	54.8%	45.3%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	6.3%	46.6%	0.4%	54.8%	45.3%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	6.3%	46.6%	0.8%	54.8%	45.3%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	6.3%	46.6%	0.8%	54.8%	45.3%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	6.3%	46.6%	0.8%	54.8%	45.3%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	6.3%	46.6%	0.8%	54.8%	45.3%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	6.1%	46.6%	0.8%	52.1%	44.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:34+00:00	6.1%	46.6%	0.8%	52.1%	44.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	6.1%	46.6%	0.8%	52.1%	44.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00	6.1%	46.6%	0.8%	52.1%	44.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	6.1%	46.6%	0.6%	52.1%	44.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	6.0%	46.6%	0.6%	52.1%	44.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	6.0%	46.6%	0.6%	52.1%	44.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	5.1%	46.6%	0.6%	52.1%	44.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	5.1%	46.6%	0.6%	52.1%	44.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	5.1%	46.6%	0.6%	52.1%	44.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	5.1%	46.6%	0.6%	52.1%	44.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:45+00:00	4.9%	44.5%	0.3%	48.4%	50.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00	4.9%	44.5%	0.3%	48.4%	50.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	4.9%	44.5%	0.3%	48.4%	50.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00	4.9%	44.5%	0.7%	48.4%	50.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	4.9%	44.5%	0.7%	48.4%	50.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	4.9%	44.5%	0.7%	48.4%	50.0%
2026-10-16T19:37:14+00:00	7.8%	44.5%	0.7%	48.4%	31.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	7.8%	44.5%	0.7%	48.4%	31.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	7.8%	44.5%	0.7%	48.4%	31.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	7.8%	44.5%	0.7%	48.4%	31.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	7.8%	44.5%	0.7%	50.8%	31.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	7.8%	44.5%	1.6%	50.8%	31.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	7.8%	44.5%	1.6%	50.8%	31.8%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	7.8%	44.5%	1.6%	50.8%	31.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	7.2%	44.5%	1.6%	50.8%	31.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	7.2%	44.5%	1.6%	50.8%	31.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	7.2%	44.5%	1.6%	50.8%	31.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	7.2%	44.5%	1.6%	50.8%	31.8%
2026-10-17T04:42:21+00:00	7.2%	44.5%	1.6%	50.8%	31.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	7.2%	44.5%	4.5%	50.8%	31.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	7.2%	44.5%	4.5%	50.8%	31.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	7.2%	44.5%	4.5%	50.8%	31.8%
2026-10-17T07:45:00+00:00	9.9%	44.5%	4.5%	70.4%	33.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:41+00:00	9.9%	44.5%	4.5%	70.4%	33.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	9.9%	44.5%	4.5%	70.4%	33.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	9.9%	44.5%	4.5%	70.4%	33.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	9.9%	44.5%	4.5%	70.4%	33.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00	9.9%	51.1%	2.3%	70.4%	33.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	9.9%	51.1%	2.3%	70.4%	33.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00	9.9%	51.1%	2.3%	70.4%	33.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:56+00:00	9.5%	51.1%	2.3%	70.4%	33.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	9.5%	51.1%	2.3%	70.4%	33.4%
2026-10-17T15:25:13+00:00	9.5%	46.7%	2.3%	70.4%	33.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	9.5%	46.7%	2.3%	70.4%	33.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	9.5%	46.7%	1.6%	70.4%	33.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	9.5%	46.7%	1.6%	70.4%	33.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	9.5%	46.7%	1.6%	70.4%	33.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	9.5%	46.7%	1.6%	70.4%	33.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:15+00:00	9.1%	46.7%	1.6%	57.1%	32.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	9.1%	46.7%	1.6%	57.1%	32.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	9.1%	46.7%	1.6%	57.1%	32.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	9.1%	46.7%	1.6%	57.1%	32.5%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	9.1%	46.7%	1.2%	57.1%	32.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	9.1%	46.7%	1.2%	57.1%	32.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	9.1%	46.7%	1.2%	57.1%	32.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00	9.1%	46.7%	1.2%	57.1%	32.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	9.1%	46.7%	1.2%	57.1%	32.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	9.1%	46.7%	1.2%	57.1%	32.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	9.1%	46.7%	1.2%	57.1%	32.5%
2026-10-18T04:14:35+00:00	9.1%	46.7%	1.2%	57.1%	32.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	9.1%	46.7%	1.0%	57.1%	32.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	9.1%	46.7%	1.0%	57.1%	32.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	9.1%	46.7%	1.0%	57.1%	32.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	9.1%	46.7%	1.0%	57.1%	32.5%
2026-10-18T08:01:46+00:00	7.7%	46.7%	1.0%	50.0%	29.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	7.7%	46.7%	1.0%	50.0%	29.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	7.7%	46.7%	1.0%	50.0%	29.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:28+00:00	7.7%	46.7%	1.0%	50.0%	29.6%
2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00	7.7%	32.0%	0.4%	50.0%	29.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00	7.7%	32.0%	0.4%	50.0%	29.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:54+00:00	7.7%	32.0%	0.4%	50.0%	29.6%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	7.7%	32.0%	0.4%	50.0%	29.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	8.4%	32.4%	0.4%	50.0%	29.7%
2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00	8.4%	32.4%	0.4%	50.0%	29.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:37+00:00	8.4%	30.0%	0.4%	50.0%	29.7%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	8.4%	30.0%	0.4%	50.0%	29.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	8.4%	30.0%	0.4%	50.0%	29.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00	8.4%	30.0%	0.4%	50.0%	29.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	8.4%	30.0%	0.4%	50.0%	29.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	7.7%	30.0%	0.4%	30.4%	14.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	7.7%	30.0%	0.4%	30.4%	14.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	7.7%	30.0%	0.4%	30.4%	14.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	7.7%	30.0%	0.4%	30.4%	14.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	7.7%	30.0%	0.4%	30.4%	14.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	7.7%	30.0%	0.5%	30.4%	14.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:56+00:00	7.7%	30.0%	0.5%	30.4%	14.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	7.7%	30.0%	0.5%	30.4%	14.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	5.2%	30.0%	0.5%	30.4%	14.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	5.2%	30.0%	0.5%	30.4%	14.3%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	5.2%	30.0%	0.5%	30.4%	14.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	5.2%	30.0%	0.5%	30.4%	14.3%
2026-10-19T04:31:24+00:00	5.2%	30.0%	0.5%	30.4%	14.3%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	5.2%	30.0%	0.4%	30.4%	14.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:15+00:00	5.2%	30.0%	0.4%	30.4%	14.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	5.2%	30.0%	0.4%	30.4%	14.3%
2026-10-19T07:33:41+00:00	5.5%	30.0%	0.4%	41.5%	4.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	5.5%	30.0%	0.4%	41.5%	4.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	5.5%	30.0%	0.4%	41.5%	4.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	5.5%	30.0%	0.4%	41.5%	4.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:23+00:00	5.5%	30.0%	0.4%	41.5%	4.3%
2026-10-19T11:21:13+00:00	5.5%	19.8%	0.1%	41.5%	4.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00	5.5%	19.8%	0.1%	41.5%	4.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	5.5%	19.8%	0.1%	41.5%	4.3%
2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00	5.5%	19.8%	0.1%	41.5%	4.3%
2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00	5.4%	19.8%	0.1%	41.5%	4.5%
2026-10-19T15:13:50+00:00	5.4%	19.8%	0.1%	41.5%	4.5%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	5.4%	19.8%	0.1%	41.5%	4.5%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	5.4%	19.8%	0.1%	41.5%	4.5%
2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00	5.4%	19.8%	0.5%	41.5%	4.5%
2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00	5.4%	19.8%	0.5%	41.5%	4.5%
2026-10-19T19:00:15+00:00	5.4%	19.8%	0.5%	41.5%	4.5%
2026-10-19T19:45:31+00:00	4.7%	19.8%	0.5%	26.8%	4.8%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	4.7%	19.8%	0.5%	26.8%	4.8%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	4.7%	19.8%	0.5%	26.8%	4.8%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	4.7%	19.8%	0.5%	26.8%	4.8%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	4.7%	19.8%	0.5%	26.8%	4.8%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	4.7%	19.8%	0.2%	26.8%	4.8%
2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00	4.7%	19.8%	0.2%	26.8%	4.8%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	4.7%	19.8%	0.2%	26.8%	4.8%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	6.0%	19.8%	0.2%	26.8%	4.8%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	6.0%	19.8%	0.2%	26.8%	4.8%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	6.0%	19.8%	0.2%	26.8%	4.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	72.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	71.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	6%	68.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	5%	68.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	66.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗