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KABQ / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
89%
EPS
82%
ICON
71%
WN2
26%
AIFS
23%
Consensus
61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 56.0¢Risks 56.05u
VS
AIFSNO 44.0¢Risks 43.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +43.95u · AIFS −43.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 29.7% · 2026-10-14T11:21:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.7% · 2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00AIFS Single: 29.7% · 2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00AIFS Single: 21.7% · 2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00AIFS Single: 21.7% · 2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00AIFS Single: 21.7% · 2026-10-14T15:12:42+00:00AIFS Single: 21.7% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00AIFS Single: 21.7% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00AIFS Single: 21.7% · 2026-10-14T17:28:14+00:00AIFS Single: 21.7% · 2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00AIFS Single: 21.7% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00AIFS Single: 38.1% · 2026-10-14T19:43:39+00:00AIFS Single: 38.1% · 2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00AIFS Single: 38.1% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00AIFS Single: 38.1% · 2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00AIFS Single: 38.1% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00AIFS Single: 38.1% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00AIFS Single: 38.1% · 2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00AIFS Single: 38.1% · 2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00AIFS Single: 23.3% · 2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00AIFS Single: 23.3% · 2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00AIFS Single: 23.3% · 2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-14T11:21:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.1% · 2026-10-14T15:12:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.1% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.1% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.1% · 2026-10-14T17:28:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.1% · 2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.1% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.1% · 2026-10-14T19:43:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.1% · 2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.1% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.1% · 2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.1% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.1% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.1% · 2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.1% · 2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.1% · 2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.1% · 2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.1% · 2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.8% · 2026-10-14T11:21:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.8% · 2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.8% · 2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.8% · 2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.9% · 2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.9% · 2026-10-14T15:12:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.9% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.9% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.4% · 2026-10-14T17:28:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.4% · 2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.4% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.4% · 2026-10-14T19:43:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.4% · 2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.4% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.4% · 2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.4% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.5% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.5% · 2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.5% · 2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.5% · 2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.5% · 2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.5% · 2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00IFS HRES: 93.5% · 2026-10-14T11:21:00+00:00IFS HRES: 93.5% · 2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00IFS HRES: 93.5% · 2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00IFS HRES: 93.5% · 2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00IFS HRES: 93.5% · 2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00IFS HRES: 93.5% · 2026-10-14T15:12:42+00:00IFS HRES: 93.5% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00IFS HRES: 93.5% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00IFS HRES: 93.5% · 2026-10-14T17:28:14+00:00IFS HRES: 93.5% · 2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00IFS HRES: 93.5% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00IFS HRES: 88.8% · 2026-10-14T19:43:39+00:00IFS HRES: 88.8% · 2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00IFS HRES: 88.8% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00IFS HRES: 88.8% · 2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00IFS HRES: 88.8% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00IFS HRES: 88.8% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00IFS HRES: 88.8% · 2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00IFS HRES: 88.8% · 2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00IFS HRES: 88.8% · 2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00IFS HRES: 88.8% · 2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00IFS HRES: 88.8% · 2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00ICON: 32.2% · 2026-10-14T11:21:00+00:00ICON: 32.2% · 2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00ICON: 32.2% · 2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00ICON: 32.2% · 2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-14T15:12:42+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-14T17:28:14+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00ICON: 71.3% · 2026-10-14T19:43:39+00:00ICON: 71.3% · 2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00ICON: 71.3% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00ICON: 71.3% · 2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00ICON: 71.3% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00ICON: 71.3% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00ICON: 71.3% · 2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00ICON: 71.3% · 2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00ICON: 71.3% · 2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00ICON: 71.3% · 2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00ICON: 71.3% · 2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:0010-14 11:2110-14 19:4310-15 03:16
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-14T11:21:00+00:0029.7%82.8%30.8%93.5%32.2%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:0029.7%82.8%30.8%93.5%32.2%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:0029.7%82.8%30.8%93.5%32.2%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:0021.7%82.8%30.8%93.5%32.2%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:0021.7%82.8%30.9%93.5%32.5%
2026-10-14T15:12:42+00:0021.7%82.1%30.9%93.5%32.5%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:0021.7%82.1%30.9%93.5%32.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:0021.7%82.1%30.9%93.5%32.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:14+00:0021.7%82.1%22.4%93.5%32.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:0021.7%82.1%22.4%93.5%32.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:0021.7%82.1%22.4%93.5%32.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:39+00:0038.1%82.1%22.4%88.8%71.3%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:0038.1%82.1%22.4%88.8%71.3%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:0038.1%82.1%22.4%88.8%71.3%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:0038.1%82.1%22.4%88.8%71.3%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:0038.1%82.1%22.4%88.8%71.3%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:0038.1%82.1%25.5%88.8%71.3%
2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:0038.1%82.1%25.5%88.8%71.3%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:0038.1%82.1%25.5%88.8%71.3%
2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:0023.3%82.1%25.5%88.8%71.3%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:0023.3%82.1%25.5%88.8%71.3%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:0023.3%82.1%25.5%88.8%71.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES89%78.2°F6.3°F2026-10-14 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble82%74.0°F3.8°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
ICON71%76.1°F9.9°F2026-10-14 12:00Pending
National Blend54%71.0°F5.6°F2026-10-14 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 226%67.2°F5.0°F2026-10-14 12:00Pending
AIFS Single23%66.4°F5.6°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261021-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 14 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 71°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗